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Trading Signals: EURUSD and USD-X July-August 2017

Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, USD-X July-August 2017

After, the hawkish speech from President Draghi in late June, Forex investors have turned bullish on the Euro. Draghi said that no further Euro rate cuts would be required, signaling a potential change in ECB’s monetary policy. As a result, the euro has seen strong gains against all the majors (USD, CHF, JPY, and GBP). Nevertheless, at this moment, EURUSD has entered an accumulation phase that is expected to last until the early August 2017.

■ Market: Foreign Exchange

■ Assets: EURUSD | USD-X

Macroeconomic Outlook

In June, FED has raised the target range of the federal funds' rate to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%, the third consecutive quarterly increase. This is the higher level of US funds rates since the financial crisis of 2008. This move corresponds to a record US jobs growth and to the lowest level of unemployment rate in 16 years. The Fed also made a statement about reducing its enormous bond portfolio. After three rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed holds $4.5 trillion of bonds (including $1.8 trillion of mortgage securities). Meanwhile, EURUSD moved higher as President Draghi gave a signal for a monetary policy change and the potential for a stronger Euro.

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US Dollar Index (USD-X) Chart and Technical Analysis

This is the weekly chart of the US Dollar Index (Futures Contract). As you can see in the chart, the USDX trend is clearly bearish. The key support area for USDX is NOT close. Currently, USD-X trades at 95.48, and the support zone commences at 90.80 (S1) and expands to 86.90 (S2). Note that the point S2 is based on the A2 trend line, which provides general support. As concerns resistance, strong supply is expected at 100.5 (R1), and especially at 104.80-105.00 (R2). The point R2 is based on the A1 trend line, which provides general resistance.

Chart: US Dollar Index (Futures Contract -Weekly)

US Dollar Index Futures Contract (Weekly)

US Dollar Index (USD-X) Support and Resistance Levels

USDX currently trades at 95.48, and these are some key support and resistance levels.

Demand (Support) Level: 90.90-90.80 (S1) | 89.50 | 88.30 | 87.30-86.90 (S2)

Supply (Resistance) Level: 98.50-98.70 | 99.70 | 100.5 (R1) | 104.80-105.00 (R2)

 

EURUSD Chart and Technical Analysis

The trend is bullish for EURUSD. Currently, EURUSD trades at 1.1385.

Chart: EURUSD (H4)

EURUSD (H4)

These are some key support and resistance levels for EURUSD:

□ Demand (Support) Level: 1.1280-1.1290 | 1.1240 | 1.1115-1.1125 | 1.0955-1.0975 | 1.082-1.0840 | 1.0730-1.0735

□ Supply (Resistance) Level: 1.1550 | 1.1600-1.1610 | 1.17050 | 1.1825-1.1830 | 1.2005-1.2010


TradingCenter Indicator (TCI) on EURUSD

After a strong move during the past weeks, TCI indicates that EURUSD has entered an accumulation phase. According to TCI, this phase will probably complete in eleven (11) trading days (TCI=+0.75%). That means in late July or in early August. Here are the full TCI readings regarding EURUSD.

Click on the following slider to reveal the full TCI readings regarding EURUSD.

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Volatility (%)

Change (%)

TCI

2017.07.03

1.13630

1.14259

1.13543

62684

0.6%

-0.50%

2.90%

2017.07.04

1.13420

1.13762

1.13354

59063

0.4%

-0.18%

1.93%

2017.07.05

1.13501

1.13677

1.13117

74987

0.5%

0.07%

2.05%

2017.07.06

1.14218

1.14241

1.13291

74657

0.8%

0.63%

2.67%

2017.07.07

1.14000

1.14392

1.13790

78471

0.5%

-0.19%

2.18%

2017.07.10

1.13986

1.14173

1.13809

55793

0.3%

-0.01%

2.54%

2017.07.11

1.14658

1.14789

1.13820

68477

0.9%

0.59%

3.35%

2017.07.12

1.14108

1.14887

1.13908

88289

0.9%

-0.48%

2.46%

2017.07.13

1.13985

1.14551

1.13698

 

0.8%

-0.11%

2.31%

(+1 Trading Day)

       

 

2.41%

(+2 Trading Days)

       

 

1.99%

(+3 Trading Days)

       

 

1.44%

(+4 Trading Days)

       

 

1.85%

(+5 Trading Days)

       

 

1.52%

(+6 Trading Days)

       

 

1.64%

(+7 Trading Days)

       

 

1.44%

(+8 Trading Days)

       

 

1.39%

(+9 Trading Days)

       

 

1.14%

(+10 Trading Days)

       

 

1.07%

(+11 Trading Days)

       

 

0.75%

(+12 Trading Days)

       

 

0.84%

(+13 Trading Days)

       

 

1.13%

(+14 Trading Days)

       

 

1.59%

(+15 Trading Days)

       

 

1.28%


EURUSD Statistics

These are the Statistics for EURUSD based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter.

 MONTH

 AVERAGE CHANGE 

 TIMES (↑↓

 AVERAGE EURUSD VOLATILITY 

JULY

0.10%

6↑ 8↓

0.815%

AUGUST

-0.34%

8↑ 6↓

0.809%

SEPTEMBER

0.80%

7↑ 6↓

0.908%

More Statistics Here

 

Forex Trading Signals: USDX July-August 2017

George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst » George at Linkedin

TradingCenter, July, 13th 2017


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