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TCI Signal on Dow Jones Industrial (Mini Bear Market)

After some time, trading signals using TCI technical analysis system are back in Trading Center. ĽWhat is TCI†? The current TCI signal concerns Dow Jones Industrial and indicates a possible beginning of a mini-bear market. Firstly here is the signal:

MARKET INSTRUMENT TARGET† DURATION PROBABILITY STOP LOSS

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA):

13,982.71

(2/13/2013)

13,850.00

13,550.00


Trading Days:

14 - 28

13,850 (80%)

13,550†(50%)

13,050 (20%)

Stop-Loss Price:

14,035.00

(Possible indication of a new short bull market)

TCI Chart on Dow Industrial since 2002

As we have mentioned already in previous signals, one of the greatest advantage of TCI analysis is the visualization of the results. On the following TCI chart from February 1st 2002 since today (2/13/2013) we may observe the point +10% to often signal mini-bear market corrections of 5-10%. TCI chart is followed by a line chart of Dow Jones Industrial during the same time period (closing prices).

Chart: TCI on Dow Chart & Dow Industrial Line Chart

TCI Chart

Trading Center Indicator in Action

In the following table we can see the market activity of Dow Jones Industrial during the recent rally that led Dow at 14,038.97 intraday (2/12/2013). All TCI data after the 13th of February 2013 are not actual, it is a forecast, as TCI is looking forwards. At the 19th and 20th of February TCI forecast a bullish corection and after the 20th of February the bear market according to TCI will continue maybe even stronger.

Table: TCI on Dow Jones (1/17/13 - 2/13/2013)

Date Open High Low Close Volume Price (%)

TCI (%)

22-Jan-13 13,649.70 13,712.21 13,622.96 13,712.21 1,443,000 0.46 8.48
23-Jan-13 13,712.21 13,794.29 13,710.13 13,779.33 1,044,900 0.49 8.24
24-Jan-13 13,779.33 13,879.66 13,779.33 13,825.33 1,247,800 0.33 8.41
25-Jan-13 13,825.33 13,895.98 13,825.33 13,895.98 1,303,000 0.51 8.51
28-Jan-13 13,895.98 13,915.72 13,862.57 13,881.93 1,135,700 -0.10 8.63
29-Jan-13 13,881.93 13,969.99 13,880.01 13,954.42 1,082,300 0.52 10.19
30-Jan-13 13,954.42 13,966.13 13,896.95 13,910.42 1,172,000 -0.32 10.14
31-Jan-13 13,910.42 13,941.06 13,860.58 13,860.58 1,426,000 -0.36 8.38
1-Feb-13 13,860.58 14,019.78 13,860.58 14,009.79 1,284,200 1.08 8.69
4-Feb-13 14,009.79 14,009.79 13,866.83 13,880.08 1,304,200 -0.93 8.49
5-Feb-13 13,880.08 14,013.60 13,880.08 13,979.30 1,343,900 0.71 8.64
6-Feb-13 13,979.30 13,991.61 13,913.18 13,986.52 1,275,600 0.05 10.03
7-Feb-13 13,986.52 13,988.06 13,852.20 13,944.05 1,185,300 -0.30 10.45
8-Feb-13 13,944.05 14,022.62 13,944.05 13,992.97 998,600 0.35 11.14
11-Feb-13 13,992.97 13,992.97 13,940.41 13,971.24 750,900 -0.16 10.83
12-Feb-13 13,971.24 14,038.97 13,968.94 14,018.70 1,171,800 0.34 13.04
13-Feb-13 14,018.70 14,029.35 13,945.78 13,982.91 1,305,200 -0.26 10.65
FORECAST MINI BEAR MARKET†† 7.15
7.33
6.83
UPWARD CORRECTION 7.25
7.71
†MINI BEAR MARKET 7.11
6.21
5.93

The Global Environment at a Glance

In the first months of 2013, the major stock-markets around the world are running too fast. The financial crisis in Europe is not over yet and growth on Eurozone is expected in 2014 and afterwards. From the other hand the US economy is on a better condition but growth isn't yet strong, given the goverment strong liquidity measures. China is doing better but the inflationary concerns about the China's economy are significant. It seems that we are certainly in a better posistion than 2 or 3 years ago but is it the right time for new historical record prices? If it isn't then a bear market movement with a duration of some weeks is absolutely normal to happen.

? Giorgos Protonotarios, for†Trading Center (February, 14th 2013)

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