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FOREX TRADING SIGNAL: EUR/USD TURNAROUND

Previous EUR/USD Signal Confirmation

The previous TCI signal has proved considerably accurate. On our previous TCI analysis on EUR/USD we have warned you of an upcoming US Dollar appreciation against Euro. By that time EUR/USD was at 1.3089 (2/25/2013). We targeted the area of 1.2910-1.2920. We also suggested that after EUR/USD reaches that particular area a strong turnaround is expected to happen. The previous signal is »Found here. 

? The Previous TCI Signal Details: -EUR/USD (2/25/13): 1.3089 -Target Price: 1.2910-1.2920 {»What is Trading Center Indicator?}

The EUR/USD pair has now reached oversold levels and its technical analysis indicates signs of an upcoming upward correction. Here is the new TCI signal on EUR/USD.

New TCI Signal on EUR/USD & TCI Chart

MARKET INSTRUMENT TARGET  STOP LOSS

EUR/USD

1.2980 

(3/14/2013)

 1.3290

1.3130

Stop-Loss:

1.2890

Here is EUR/USD historical Line chart (since 1999) and the corresponding TCI chart during the same period. TCI today is about -8.0%, which is a sign of oversold levels.

Chart: EUR/USD Historic Line Chart & TCI Chart (January 1999 – March 2013)

TCI in Action: EUR/USD Analysis and the Possible Turnaround

Today it is the 14th of March 2013 and EUR/USD rate is at about 1.2980. Actually EUR/USD intraday has reached the point of 1.2910 that we have discussed and targeted on our previous TCI signal. Since then, EUR/USD trend has reversed and now trades above 1.2980. The strong rebound that TCI has forecasted, has possibly started. Using again TCI we will try to re-evaluate what happens next regarding EUR/USD. 

EUR/USD Data Table

First of all let’s start with the recent EUR/USD market data and the corresponding TCI values. All TCI data after the closing of the 13th of March constitute a Forex market forecasting. 

 

Table: EUR/USD Market Data & TCI

DATE

CLOSE

HIGH

LOW

CHANGE

TCI FORECAST

2/22/2013

1.3184

1.3245

1.3146

0.0152%

-1.49%

2/25/2013

1.3089

1.3318

1.3069

-0.7206%

-3.53%

2/26/2013

1.3054

1.3122

1.3019

-0.2674%

-3.22%

2/27/2013

1.3136

1.3140

1.3042

0.6282%

-1.97%

2/28/2013

1.3064

1.3162

1.3050

-0.5481%

-3.87%

3/1/2013

1.3024

1.3101

1.2965

-0.3062%

-3.66%

3/4/2013

1.3017

1.3031

1.2980

-0.0537%

-3.63%

3/5/2013

1.3039

1.3075

1.3011

0.1690%

-3.42%

3/6/2013

1.2991

1.3071

1.2983

-0.3681%

-4.12%

3/7/2013

1.3106

1.3118

1.2967

0.8852%

-3.46%

3/8/2013

1.2997

1.3134

1.2954

-0.8317%

-5.59%

3/11/2013

1.3031

1.3043

1.2980

0.2616%

-5.17%

3/12/2013

1.3034

1.3074

1.2991

0.0230%

-5.68%

3/13/2013

1.2960

1.3065

1.2921

-0.5677%

-7.29%

+1d

 

-7.45%

+2d

 

-8.06%

+3d

 

 

 

 

-6.52%

+4d

 

-7.47%

+5d

 

-6.85%

+6d

 

 

 

 

-5.34%

+7d

 

 

 

 

-4.89%

+8d

 

-5.27%

+9d

 

 

 

 

-5.84%

+10d

 

 

 

 

-5.70%

+11d

 

-4.75%

+12d

 

 

 

 

-4.91%

+13d

 

 

 

 

-4.81%

+14d

 

-5.33%

+15d

 

-4.00%

+16d

 

 

 

 

-2.92%

+17d

 

 

 

 

-2.85%

+18d

 

 

 

 

-1.33%

+19d

 

 

 

 

-0.94%

Given all the above market data and the TCI forecast, a possible turnaround was expected on the 15th, of March 2013. Actually it seems that a turnaround has started on the 14th of March. Markets tend to move faster than technical analysis. The trigger area of 1.2910-1.2920 was met (14/3/2013) so a strong rebound may be on the way. The rebound could bring EUR/USD at 1.3130-1.3160. The strong resistance expected at that price area should determine what happens next. The next resistance should be expected at 1.3250.

EUR/USD Mid-Term Analysis

As we have already mentioned in previous analysis during the second semester of 2013 we should expect a Euro Interest Rate cut. Eurozone recession deepens and lower interest rates can be a partial cure. From the other hand, the US interest rates have only one way to go, and that is to go up.

The German Elections in September 2013

The future of Eurozone given Italy’s recent election results is jeopardized and a strategic turnaround should be expected in October 2013, after the German elections (9/22/2013). Maybe after the German elections, Europe will target growth again. That means lower Euro interest rates and a flexible EUR/USD.

The Long-Term EUR/USD Trend

According to historical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is moving in a long-term range between 0.80 and 1.60. The point 1.60 was reached in 2008 and since then the long-term trend of EUR/USD is bearish. My forecast is that we are going to witness EUR/USD at 0.85 in 2015.


Giorgos Protonotarios, 

for Trading Center (March, 14th 2013)

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