US Dollar against other Majors October-November 2014
■ Market / Asset: Forex / US Dollar against other Majors
■ TCI Forecast: USD correction is coming to an end, then the formation of a new USD uptrend (↑)
■ Momentum: New Uptrend is expected to commence in the last few days of October 2014 and to peak during late November 2014
Foreign Exchange Market Outlook
The strength of the US Dollar as concerns the next 6-12 months is undisputable, but Forex currencies are not trading like shares and this strength cannot be transformed into a single directional trend. During September 2014 the US Dollar appreciated very rapidly against other majors as you can see in the TCI tables presented below. This rapid and straightforward move created an overbought US Dollar market (EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD). The correction was inevitable. Neither the FED nor the ECB is willing to allow USD straightforward currency moves which may jeopardize the real economy in both continents. The US Dollar appreciation will happen in the right timing and according to the right market momentum. In that context, we shall expect USD bullish markets of 4-6% and then corrections of 2-3% in time patterns lasting 3-4 months in overall.
Evaluating the Previous Forex Trading Signal on USDJPY (September 2014)
In our previous Forex Trading Signal, we had indicated an upcoming correction on USDJPY. By that time USDJPY was trading at 108.626. In addition, we have indicated as the first strong resistance level 110.75. USDJPY in October the 1st reached 110.08 and after the correction started. During October the 15th, USDJPY reached the local low of 105.193. The signal was confirmed.
The Previous Forex Signal: ►Forex Trade Signals -USDJPY September 2014
TCI on USD against Other Majors
The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a complete Technical Analysis Tool developed by TradingCenter. What makes TCI unique is that it can forecast both upcoming trends and time pattern formations. ►More About TCI
Here are the TCI Indications regarding the US Dollar against EUR, GBP, and JPY:
Table: TCI on EURUSD
Date
Close
High
Low
Volume
Change (%)
Volatility (%)
TCI
2014.10.14
1.26559
1.27666
1.26389
209819
-0.74%
1.0%
-1.98%
2014.10.15
1.28357
1.2885
1.26239
326137
1.42%
2.1%
1.24%
2014.10.16
1.28068
1.28439
1.27049
301769
-0.23%
1.1%
1.00%
2014.10.17
1.27591
1.28356
1.27429
184611
-0.37%
0.7%
0.62%
2014.10.20
1.27981
1.28159
1.27302
153448
0.31%
0.7%
1.27%
2014.10.21
1.27147
1.28394
1.27131
188975
-0.65%
1.0%
0.31%
2014.10.22
1.26922
1.27388
1.26798
59072
-0.18%
0.5%
0.39%
(+1 Trading Days)
0.09%
(+2 Trading Days)
0.60%
(+3 Trading Days)
0.18%
(+4 Trading Days)
0.20%
(+5 Trading Days)
1.56%
(+6 Trading Days)
0.28%
(+7 Trading Days)
0.30%
(+8 Trading Days)
-0.54%
(+9 Trading Days)
-0.15%
(+10 Trading Days)
0.41%
(+11 Trading Days)
-0.58%
(+12 Trading Days)
0.29%
(+13 Trading Days)
-0.96%
(+14 Trading Days)
-0.98%
(+15 Trading Days)
-0.60%
Table: TCI on GBPUSD
Date
Close
High
Low
Volume
Change (%)
Volatility (%)
TCI
2014.10.20
1.6162
1.61786
1.60791
166084
0.44%
0.6%
-0.82%
2014.10.21
1.61097
1.61833
1.61085
187404
-0.32%
0.5%
-1.11%
2014.10.22
1.6027
1.61299
1.60108
60587
-0.51%
0.7%
-1.60%
(+1 Trading Days)
-1.81%
(+2 Trading Days)
-0.96%
(+3 Trading Days)
-1.11%
(+4 Trading Days)
-1.40%
(+5 Trading Days)
-1.32%
(+6 Trading Days)
-1.40%
(+7 Trading Days)
-0.86%
(+8 Trading Days)
-0.75%
(+9 Trading Days)
-1.07%
(+10 Trading Days)
-1.59%
(+11 Trading Days)
-1.34%
(+12 Trading Days)
-1.37%
(+13 Trading Days)
-1.33%
(+14 Trading Days)
-1.14%
(+15 Trading Days)
-0.69%
Table: TCI on USDJPY
Date
Close
High
Low
Volume
Change (%)
Volatility (%)
TCI
2014.10.20
106.933
107.383
106.775
169619
0.06%
0.6%
-0.26%
2014.10.21
106.981
107.005
106.242
176139
0.04%
0.7%
0.41%
2014.10.22
106.875
107.099
106.781
48323
-0.10%
0.3%
-0.03%
(+1 Trading Days)
0.15%
(+2 Trading Days)
-0.29%
(+3 Trading Days)
-0.37%
(+4 Trading Days)
-0.87%
(+5 Trading Days)
-1.08%
(+6 Trading Days)
-0.76%
(+7 Trading Days)
-0.63%
(+8 Trading Days)
-0.83%
(+9 Trading Days)
-1.30%
(+10 Trading Days)
-1.27%
(+11 Trading Days)
-1.35%
(+12 Trading Days)
-1.23%
(+13 Trading Days)
-1.22%
(+14 Trading Days)
-1.10%
(+15 Trading Days)
-0.98%
USD Statistics against Euro, British Sterling and Japanese Yen
Below you may find the US Dollar Statistics for the upcoming months based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter.
Table: EURUSD Statistics
MONTH |
AVERAGE CHANGE |
TIMES(↑↓) |
AVERAGE VOLATILITY |
OCTOBER |
-0.50% |
7↑ 6↓ |
0.904% |
NOVEMBER |
0.49% |
7↑ 6↓ |
0.909% |
DECEMBER |
1.95% |
8↑ 5↓ |
0.817% |
As you can see in the above table, the Euro usually finishes the year very strongly, therefore if you short the Euro against the USD keep your positions not more than early December 2014. ► More Statistics Here
Table: GBPUSD Statistics
MONTH |
AVERAGE CHANGE |
TIMES(↑↓) |
AVERAGE VOLATILITY |
OCTOBER |
0.08% |
8↑ 5↓ |
0.831% |
NOVEMBER |
-0.61% |
4↑ 9↓ |
0.839% |
DECEMBER |
0.37% |
5↑ 8↓ |
0.783% |
Table: USDJPY Statistics
MONTH |
AVERAGE CHANGE |
TIMES (↑↓) |
AVERAGE VOLATILITY |
OCTOBER |
-0.94% |
5↑ 8↓ |
0.862% |
NOVEMBER |
-0.23% |
6↑ 7↓ |
0.836% |
DECEMBER |
0.89% |
7↑ 6↓ |
0.778% |
Recent Important News and Updates Related to USD and other Majors
-There are rumors that ECB purchased corporate bonds as a pretext of entering the new shorts.
-Paul Robson, RBS currency strategist said recently “The general takeaway here for a lot of people is that it shows commitment from the ECB trying to find ways to expand its balance sheet" and then he said "People still recognize that the US economy is some years ahead of the ECB, and that on a multi-quarter basis would suggest that EURUSD goes lower"
-David Tepper, who runs Appaloosa Management debt hedge fund ($20 billion) said recently that shorting the euro is the ‘best idea’. He believes that ECB will have to loosen the Eurozone monetary policy further by expanding its balance sheet in an effort to stimulate the economy.
-Fed meets next week and it is expected to expand its $4 trillion bond-buying program.
-As concerns the upcoming US inflation data, the annual CPI is expected 1.6% in September 2014 against 1.7% in August 2014
-The Core US CPI in September is expected to grow to 0.2% month to month and 1.7% year to year
-Koichi Takamatsu, head of Forex Trading at Nomura Securities said recently "The US CPI data will be very important. If the market turns risk-off, money will flow to US bonds. A weak figure will surely hurt the dollar".
-Russian Finance Minister (Anton Siluanov) stated recently that his ministry shall hold its first Forex deposit auction starting in early November 2014. These auctions shall face the shortage of USD and Euros among Russian banks.
-The Central Bank of Russiahas spent more than 13 billion USD supporting the local currency (Ruble) just since early October.
■ Free Forex Trading Signals: US Dollar October-November 2014
George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst
TradingCenter 22nd of October 2014
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