Free Forex Trading Signals & EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Forex Trading Signals using TCI Technical Analysis

We are evaluating the current trend of popular Forex pairs while we are providing Forex trading signals on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, EUR/NZD and USD/CHF. The technical analysis that follows is based on our model called TCI. The TCI analysis, as always, is focused on a short-term horizon but not on an intraday horizon. Read more about TCI and ►TCI+. Our Forex Trading Signals are suitable for traders that keep their positions for a couple of days to a couple of weeks, and not for intraday traders. Before presenting our current Forex trading signals we are going to investigate the previous trading signal / report on Google’s share.

Previous Signal / Report on Google

Our previous report on Google has proved correct offering fair profits, especially to derivative traders. We have indicated a bullish trend for the Google’s share, and we have targeted $900 or even $1,000 per share. By the time the signal was published, the Google’s share was traded at about $857. Today {Goog} is trading at $889 while it reached $920 some days ago. Be aware that the short-term rally of the Goggle share is expected to last maximum until the end of May 2013. We are probably going to see a logical correction not only as concerns the Google share but also as concerns the whole Nasdaq market. This correction will be a pure technical correction and it is expected to last maybe for a couple of weeks.

» Google {GOOG} Technical & Fundamental Report -May 2013

Forex Trading SignalsTCI Forex Trading Signals (Mid-Term Forecast)

Here are some other TCI Forecasts on popular Forex Pairs:

1) EUR/USD (Uptrend after May, 28 2013) –Currently 1.2850

The EUR/USD pair seems to complete a bearish short-term movement and to enter a correctional phase which will offer an upcoming uptrend reaction. The uptrend reaction is not expected to be particular intense, unless it will be followed and supported by new macroeconomic data. More analysis, charts and data regarding EURUSD are presented below.

2) USD/CHF  (Downtrend after the end of May 2013) –Currently 0.9660

The short-term uptrend of USDCHF seems to come to an end. That is probably going to happen during the following days. TCI peaks on the 28th of May 2013. After that date USDCHF is expected to trade in lower levels.

2) GBP/USD (Downtrend until the first half of June) –Currently 1.5080

The TCI technical profile of GBPUSD is becoming negative. In the first half of June 2013 we are probably going to see GBPUSD moving lower.

3) EUR/NZD  (Short-term correction) –Currently 1.5970

After the recent uptrend-rally and according to TCI analysis EURNZD is expected to make an average correction.

4) USD/JPY (Short-term correction) –Currently 101.40

Technically speaking and given TCI analysis, USD/JPY is absolutely overbought. But there is no clear sign of a great downward movement as the long-term trend of USDJPY is still extremely bullish. Probably we are going to see a weak downtrend for a couple of weeks in order the new levels to be absorbed by the market. After that correctional-period, USDJPY is expected to move into new highs again.

EUR/USD Historic Chart Analysis

Here is a multi-chart of EURUSD that is explained below.

Chart: EUR/USD


The above multi-chart refers to EURUSD. The presented statistics refer to a wide time period commencing in the beginning of 1990 and lasting until today (the end of May 2013). Four (4) separate types of charts are included, let’s see them one by one:

1) Line Chart

It is a classical line chart which corresponds to a EURUSD quote measured on a daily basis. The black line is the quote while the red line (- -) is the moving average of 250 trading days. 250 trading days are almost equal to a calendar year.

2) TCI Chart

Readers of Trading Center are familiar with our TCI analysis. We are today improving our TCI model including new parameters such is the magnitude of daily volatility. The TCI chart which is included is a Long-TCI chart switched to 3-months.

3) Volatility Chart

It is presenting important changes as concerns EURUSD historical volatility. Volatility is measured as the percentage distance between the daily High and the Daily Low prices. Notice that when the level of volatility peaks, after we are witnessing trend reversals.

4) Volume Activity Chart

It is presenting important changes in the level of daily volume activity.

TCI Data

In the following table you may see the full TCI data for the upcoming time frame. 

Date Close Volume Δ% Volat. TCI TCI (3-Month)
2013.04.25 1.30104 87365 -0.23% 0.8% 0.01% -5.09%
2013.04.26 1.30273 84228 0.07% 0.4% -0.16% -4.92%
2013.04.29 1.30985 57991 0.19% 0.7% -0.08% -3.55%
2013.04.30 1.31675 63994 0.36% 1.0% 1.25% -3.66%
2013.05.01 1.31805 54433 -0.16% 0.6% 0.52% -3.67%
2013.05.02 1.30635 81106 -0.49% 1.4% -0.11% -3.51%
2013.05.03 1.3115 67268 0.14% 1.0% -0.44% -2.85%
2013.05.06 1.30759 39626 -0.17% 0.7% 0.66% -3.39%
2013.05.07 1.30779 52218 -0.16% 0.5% 0.38% -4.22%
2013.05.08 1.31489 58133 0.12% 0.9% 1.12% -3.67%
2013.05.09 1.30389 70675 -0.41% 1.3% 0.04% -4.12%
2013.05.10 1.29893 87755 -0.02% 0.9% -0.07% -4.35%
2013.05.13 1.29748 68080 0.04% 0.4% -0.44% -4.28%
2013.05.14 1.2921 80417 -0.39% 0.9% -0.84% -5.45%
2013.05.15 1.28867 76282 -0.05% 0.8% -1.27% -4.47%
2013.05.16 1.2882 87941 -0.05% 0.6% -2.71% -3.99%
2013.05.17 1.28369 71455 -0.04% 0.7% -3.40% -3.99%
2013.05.20 1.28844 57157 0.18% 0.6% -3.13% -1.77%
2013.05.21 1.29058 72797 0.15% 0.7% -3.24% -1.34%
2013.05.22 1.29291 42235 0.00% 0.4% -2.98% -1.97%
Forecast Begins       -3.13% -1.20%
          -3.60% -0.96%
          -3.14% -1.28%
Forecasted Low       -4.07% -1.41%
Uptrend begins       -2.97% -0.62%
          -2.88% -1.61%
          -2.42% -0.94%
          -2.67% -1.40%
          -2.28% -1.33%
          -2.57% -0.81%
          -2.10% -1.30%
          -2.27% -1.63%
          -2.66% -1.94%
Forecasted Low       -3.36% -1.32%
          -3.05% -1.74%
          -2.03% -1.36%
          -2.29% -1.97%
          -1.96% -0.55%
          -1.67% -0.52%

According to TCI EURUSD will probably complete its short-term downtrend movement on the 28th of May 2013. If there is a trend reversal before that date, it is very possible that the downtrend cycle will not complete. That means that we are going to see an extensive downtrend that will last probably until the second week of June 2013.

Eurozone from a Macroeconomic point of view

Despite all the problems and the recession that the Eurozone faces today some good signs are appearing in the macroeconomic horizon. The problematic countries of the South are limiting their deficits and recently Portugalwas able to enter the debt markets again. As concerns Greece, things are improving too. During May 2013, the Greek banks are completing the procedure of issuing new capital and after that their capital structure will be healthy again. The shares of Greek banks offered investors enormous profits of even 250% since just the 1st of May.

New Member in European Union in the 1st of July

Croatia will become an official E.U. member inJuly 1, 2013. Its membership was approved by the German parliament onMay 16, 2013. Croatia will probably be the last country to join the European Union for several years ahead, unless the European Central Bank starts imposing a more flexible currency policy. The current inflationary concerns and policy of ECB are pushing new memberships away.

The US Economy and Mr. Bernanke

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of Federal Reserve recently supported the cause of the FED’s $85 billion on-a-month programme. When Bernanke was asked if the current stimulus programme can create bubbles he answered "major asset classes, including the stock markets, were not inconsistent with the fundamentals". Furthermore Bernanke supported at the US Congress that the US government budget cuts are making the recovery of theUSeconomy more difficult. When Bernanke was asked about the hazards of FED’s policy he answered "There is no risk free strategy here."

What we should conclude from all that? The policy of FED will stay focused on growth and on facing unemployment and thus we shouldn’t expect any changes of the US interest rates in the near future. The USD rate is currently at 0.25%.

» Compare the US Economy against the Eurozone and China


 Giorgos Protonotarios,

Free Forex Trading Signals & EUR/USD Technical Analysis

for TradingCenter (23th of May 2013)

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