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Forex Trading Signal on GBP/AUD (British Pound against Australian Dollar)

It seems the time has come for the British Sterling. Recently the British Sterling (GBP) started an uptrend against all majors and minors. The current TCI trading signal involves GBP against the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is very week against all majors this period, and especially as concerns AUD against GBP, EUR and USD. But before presenting more data on GBPAUD we should, as always, evaluate our previous signal. The previous signal concerned EURUSD and other popular pairs (23rd of May 2013).

Evaluating the Previous TCI Forex Trading Signals

On our previous analysis we have mainly focused on EURUSD indicating an upcoming uptrend. By that time EURUSD traded at 1.2850. Today after 2 weeks EURUSD is found at 1.3217 and has performed an incredible return for derivative traders. As concerns the other signals, we forecasted right the movement of USDJPY and USDCHF, and we forecasted wrong the trend on GBPUSD and EURNZD.

Here is the signal..

»Fx Trading Signals & EURUSD Analysis

British Pound Sterling against the Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) currently is very week against all majors, a trend that it is expecting to continue for the next weeks, of course given neutral news. In this current Forex Trading Signal we are focusing on British Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The reason is that the British Pound is close to its historical lows against the Australian Dollar and that means a lot of support downwards. The trading signal indicates the following target profit & stop loss point levels:

GBPAUD Currently: 1.6374*

GBPAUD Mid-Term Trigger: when 1.6480 brakes for sure

GBPAUD Target Profit: 1.6900 (mid-term)

GBPAUD Stop-Loss: 1.6320, 1.6280 (short-term) and finally 1.6180 (mid-term)

*If you are not an experienced Forex trader, before opening a position on GBPUSD it is highly recommended that you wait for the point level of 1.6480 to brake for sure. 

In any case the upcoming news will play a major role. If news is good or neutral we are expecting GBPAUD to move as forecasted, in an aggressive uptrend. If not, we could see even 1.6180. Below that point levels, the master trend should be considered as bearish again. In the following MT4 chart we may see GBPAUD for the past three years (2010-2013)

Chart: GBPAUD Daily Closing (2010-2013)

The GBPAUD Historical High/Low

Using Forex data for the period 1992-2013 we get the following points:

-High: 3.0000 | Low: 1.4350 | Pivot: 2.2175

Today GBPAUD is found at about 1.6380 and it is far away from its historical high and very close to its historical low. In a very long-term approach we could see GBPAUD reaching its pivot at 2.2175.

The Ideal Level of Leverage to trade GBPAUD & Evaluating the SWAP value

The ideal leverage to trade any currency pair, is the level of leverage that will not force you to place a close stop-loss order. That means that if you are using leverage of 100:1 -in order to manage your losses you will be forced to place a very-close stop-loss and therefore you will be exposed to the ‘Market Noise’. Leverage should be understood as a Friend and an enemy too. Trade a mid-trend using leverage 30:1. But of course large trades are exposed to high swap charges too.

The Difference in Interest Rate between the Sterling and the Australian Dollar

The GBP annual rate is 0.50% (recently unchanged) with inflation 2.40% while the AUD has an annual rate 2.75% with inflation 2.50%. That means a swap value of about $17 per lot in a daily basis (according to my STP broker).

GBPAUD Crucial Short-Term Point Levels (Support & Resistance)

-1.8135 (Very Strong Resistance)

-1.7610 (Strong Resistance)

-1.7250 (Average Resistance)

-1.6910 (Weak Resistance)

-1.6630 (Weak Resistance)

-1.6475-1.6480 (Very Strong Short-Term Resistance)

-1.6380 (Weak+ Recent High)

-1.6290 (Weak+ Recent Low)

-1.6190-1.6240 (Strong Support)

-1.6150-1.6100 (Average+ –Recent High)

-1.5880 (Average –Recent High)

-1.5780 (Average Impact -Variable Trend Line /)

TCI Data Table

TCI on GBP/AUD indicates an overbought market but also a market that has the tendency to move upwards before a strong correction occurs. In any case the upcoming news will play a major role. If news is good or neutral we are expecting GBPAUD to move as forecasted in an aggressive uptrend to even 1.6900.

Table: GBPAUD Market Data and TCI

Date Close High Low Volume ? (%) Volat. TCI
2013.05.01 1.51238 1.51586 1.4958 92,164 0.43% 1.3% 0.26%
2013.05.02 1.51503 1.52312 1.51173 97,062 -0.16% 0.8% -0.03%
2013.05.03 1.50824 1.51737 1.5073 83,110 -0.27% 0.7% 0.22%
2013.05.06 1.5148 1.52027 1.50834 73,996 0.03% 0.8% -0.06%
2013.05.07 1.51981 1.52864 1.51457 91,519 -0.12% 0.9% -0.12%
2013.05.08 1.52673 1.53 1.51693 105,890 0.21% 0.9% 0.09%
2013.05.09 1.53 1.53589 1.51504 118,679 0.30% 1.4% 0.12%
2013.05.10 1.53136 1.5418 1.52936 133,660 -0.27% 0.8% 0.12%
2013.05.13 1.53668 1.54268 1.53254 125,330 -0.06% 0.7% -0.05%
2013.05.14 1.53751 1.54213 1.53123 144,678 0.05% 0.7% 0.19%
2013.05.15 1.538 1.54554 1.53531 153,072 -0.16% 0.7% 0.22%
2013.05.16 1.5559 1.55755 1.53723 152,855 0.55% 1.3% 0.68%
2013.05.17 1.55778 1.5657 1.55369 140,924 -0.12% 0.8% 0.69%
2013.05.20 1.55462 1.55872 1.55221 129,843 -0.05% 0.4% 0.83%
2013.05.21 1.54529 1.56132 1.54216 143,684 -0.42% 1.2% 0.66%
2013.05.22 1.55093 1.55562 1.54115 151,771 0.16% 0.9% 0.73%
2013.05.23 1.549 1.56578 1.54568 181,010 -0.43% 1.3% 0.21%
2013.05.24 1.56615 1.56864 1.54805 153,565 0.50% 1.3% 0.73%
2013.05.27 1.56663 1.57286 1.5657 93,581 -0.17% 0.5% 0.77%
2013.05.28 1.56341 1.57085 1.55849 143,874 -0.08% 0.8% 0.71%
2013.05.29 1.57009 1.57657 1.56222 148,086 0.04% 0.9% 0.72%
2013.05.30 1.5762 1.57719 1.56182 159,254 0.43% 1.0% 1.14%
2013.05.31 1.58665 1.58862 1.57275 151,698 0.38% 1.0% 1.35%
2013.06.03 1.56787 1.58574 1.56683 145,828 -0.53% 1.2% 1.16%
2013.06.04 1.58644 1.59032 1.56728 151,655 0.48% 1.5% 1.55%
2013.06.05 1.61374 1.61835 1.58514 160,819 0.75% 2.1% 2.04%
2013.06.06 1.62445 1.63322 1.61316 180,358 0.08% 1.2% 1.84%
2013.06.07 1.63737 1.64778 1.62412 196,200 0.09% 1.5% 1.93%
              1.92%
              2.30%
              2.25%
              1.96%
              1.63%
              2.02%
              2.09%
              2.23%
              2.11%
              2.18%
              1.71%
              1.76%
              1.73%
              1.62%
              1.66%
              1.46%
              1.67%
              1.72%
              1.39%
              1.26%
              1.44%
              1.44%
              1.14%
              1.25%
              1.44%
              1.42%
              1.50%
              1.36%

 

The British Pound against the US Dollar

GBPUSD is a very popular pair that could also move upwards in the next months. But this is not forecasted by this signal in any case at this time when important fundamental news is upcoming concerning both economies (British and especially the US economy). Here is the chart of GBPUSD during the past three years.

Chart: GBPUSD Daily Closing (2010-2013)

Note: Nobody Can Predict the Short-Term Market Course

Financial markets can not be predicted especially as concerns the short-term. Instead in some cases the course of a market can be forecasted using a probability model. If the probability that a trend will occur is more than 60-70% then a signal can prove really profitable. This is exactly how our Forex Trading Signals work. The following week is full of unexpected news that could ruin the accuracy of the current GBPAUD trading signal. But what is really important is that we may see signs of a mid-term uptrend movement of GBPAUD. Any corrections will provide favorable trading opportunities, given that the time of trading will be right.


? Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst 

for Trading Center, Free Forex Trading Signals (GBPAUD) -Sunday the 9th of June 2013, before opening 

 

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