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Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, GBPUSD & USDJPY

THE US DOLLAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG

The summer hasn’t started yet as concerns new Forex market developments and currency fluctuations. There is this filling in the air that something is about to change in the global monetary “Status Quo” during the next 3-4 months. FED is changing the rules of the game and preparing world markets for a new monetary policy. In our last Forex Report (two weeks ago) we have forecasted that the good days for Euro against the US Dollar are about to end. Read Here the full report: »EURUSD Downtrend & Upcoming News EURUSD at that time was traded at 1.3120 while today it is traded at about 1.2830. The mid-trend of EURUSD is clearly bearish but as concerns the short-term things become much more complicated (Check the TCI analysis at the end of this Report).

A Short Analysis about What is Coming

After its recent announcements FED is obviously preparing the global market for higher US rates. The unemployment figures are improving so FED’s main concern is moving towards dealing with the upcoming inflation. That mathematically leads to higher interest rates after the end of summer 2013. Higher US interest rates (currently at 0.25%) will make US Bonds and the US Dollar more attractive to domestic and foreign investors. That will lead to a stronger US Dollar, and especially as concerns the EURUSD. A stronger US Dollar means also the devaluation of all commodity prices that are valued in US Dollars. This is happening because as USD is appreciating these commodities must devaluate in order to maintain real values and not to disturb the balance between real demand and supply. This mechanism explains why the Gold Price has crushed during the past couple of weeks when USD became stronger.

■ US Interest Rates (↑) → USD (↑) → Commodity Prices (↓)

EURUSD Historic Channel & Long-Term Forecast

By researching EURUSD quotes during the period 1989-2013, we may observe a broad price channel which is formed between EURUSD High 1.60 and EURUSD Low 0.82.

■ High 1.6036 (7/15/2008) ■ Low 0.8225 (10/26/2000) ■ Pivot: 1.2130

It seems that after the end of this 8-year EURUSD cycle (2000-2008), EURUSD is now moving downwards. Maybe even to test the bottom area during the next 3-4 years. As concerns 2013, it is highly possible to see EURUSD testing the demand level of 1.2500 or even the demand level of 1.2130. Of course these long-term target prices will need many months to be seen. Additionally, mid-term bearish trends are always disrupted by short–term bear-market rallies. So you must be very careful with the timing of entrance to this EURUSD bearish trend that is on the move.

Using TCI Technical Analysis to forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY

Using TCI Technical Analysis some important dates are identified according the short-term trend. In summary we should expect the US Dollar to enjoy about two calendar weeks of appreciation and then a strong correctional move to balance the short-term USD overbought levels.

The new Version of TCI is more Precise than Ever Before

The following Forex Signals are based on the new version of TCI. This new version is much more sensitive to the short-term trend and incorporates a model of time cycles developed according to the Fibonacci sequence of numbers. The back-testing so far indicates that this new version of TCI is superior to all the previous ones. In general TCI can be used either to determine Overbought / Oversold Levels or to identify the strength and the duration of a price trend. As a tip, it is better to focus on the rate of change of TCI rather on the actual numerical TCI indications. Remember that Trading Center’s Forex signals are not suitable for Day-Traders, instead these Free Forex Signals are suitable for Position Traders. The intraday trend as we have mentioned in the past is unpredictable.

TCI on EURUSD

TCI indicates a bearish 2-week period for EURUSD and a strong correctional rally after. According to TCI data, three Weak-Reversals and two Strong Reversal Points are targeted. The weak reversals will probably trigger intraday corrections while the strong reversals will trigger a correctional upward rally of several days. TCI can not forecast the future, but it can identify the natural course of upcoming prices (market pattern).

Date Close High Low Volume Δ% TCI-SHORT TCI-LONG
2013.06.25 1.30798 1.31498 1.30644 57224 -0.29% 0.53% 2.18%
2013.06.26 1.30095 1.30863 1.29841 63298 -0.54% 0.39% -0.35%
2013.06.27 1.30366 1.30562 1.29994 55889 0.21% 0.57% 3.05%
2013.06.28 1.30082 1.31022 1.29904 59940 -0.22% 0.07% 2.75%
2013.07.01 1.30622 1.30659 1.30043 41044 0.41% 0.66% 3.51%
2013.07.02 1.29768 1.30772 1.29629 47947 -0.66% -0.58% 0.69%
2013.07.03 1.30078 1.30305 1.29223 45656 0.24% 0.07% 1.99%
2013.07.04 1.2912 1.30225 1.28824 39893 -0.74% -1.25% -3.16%
2013.07.05 1.28277 1.29157 1.28053 50184 -0.65% -2.36% -7.75%
(TCI Forecast Begins -Focus on the TCI rate of change-)
(+1 trading-day) LOW --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -2.17% -7.14%
(+2 days) -1.68% -8.46%
(+3 days) -1.99% -7.79%
(+4 days) LOW --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -2.34% -8.47%
(+5 days) -2.00% -8.72%
(+6 days) -2.23% -8.02%
(+7 days) LOW --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -2.28% -8.68%
(+8 days) -2.27% -8.77%
(+9 days) LOW--Strong-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -2.66% -9.04%
(+10 days)  -2.27% -7.05%
(+11 days) -2.28% -6.87%
(+12 days) -2.40% -6.10%
(+13 days) -2.30% -5.05%
(+14 days) -2.34% -4.04%
(+15 days) -2.35% -4.39%
(+16 days) -2.33% -2.77%
(+17 days) LOW --Strong-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -2.59% -4.29%
(+18 days)  -2.01% -6.42%
(+19 days) -1.89% -7.38%
(+20 days) -1.28% -6.82%

TCI on GBPUSD

According to TCI data, three Weak-Reversals and a Strong Reversal Point are identified. The British Sterling against the US Dollar seems to be even more oversold than the Euro against the US Dollar (short-term). GBP as EUR is expected to become even cheaper against the USD before a real trend reversal occurs. As concerns the long-term trend of GBPUSD, it is close to its historic lows and we should expect to appreciate during the upcoming years. This will be probably the subject of a future report.

Time Close Open High Low ΔP% TCI SHORT TCI LONG
2013.06.21 1.54161 1.55058 1.5529 1.53672 -0.57% 0.99% -6.05%
2013.06.24 1.54301 1.5373 1.54643 1.53428 0.09% 1.27% -3.71%
2013.06.25 1.542 1.54296 1.54761 1.53964 -0.07% 1.38% -5.27%
2013.06.26 1.53113 1.54246 1.54392 1.52966 -0.70% 0.69% -8.30%
2013.06.27 1.52576 1.531 1.53449 1.52007 -0.35% -0.15% -9.84%
2013.06.28 1.52095 1.52574 1.52781 1.51645 -0.32% -0.33% -9.97%
2013.07.01 1.52143 1.52027 1.52477 1.51827 0.03% -0.43% -10.95%
2013.07.02 1.51535 1.52142 1.52371 1.51354 -0.40% -0.98% -13.00%
2013.07.03 1.52785 1.51534 1.53034 1.51291 0.82% 0.87% -7.15%
2013.07.04 1.50699 1.52782 1.52873 1.50545 -1.37% -1.53% -15.92%
2013.07.05 1.48858 1.50727 1.5077 1.48566 -1.22% -3.57% -23.39%
  (TCI Forecast Begins -Focus on the TCI rate of change-)
(+1 trading-day) LOW --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -3.13% -22.31%
(+2 days) -2.76% -22.36%
(+3 days) -3.30% -23.18%
(+4 days) LOW --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -3.39% -23.58%
(+5 days) -3.01% -23.15%
(+6 days) -3.35% -22.37%
(+7 days) LOW --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -3.15% -23.09%
(+8 days) -3.17% -23.00%
(+9 days)  -3.42% -23.54%
(+10 days)  -3.34% -24.12%
(+11 days) -3.44% -24.47%
(+12 days) LOW --Strong-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- -3.52% -24.67%
(+13 days)  -3.35% -23.25%
(+14 days) -3.27% -22.36%
(+15 days) -3.21% -22.01%
(+16 days) -3.17% -20.57%
(+17 days) -3.00% -21.52%
(+18 days) -2.36% -22.31%
(+19 days) -2.75% -22.04%
(+20 days) -2.06% -20.06%

TCI on USDJPY

According to TCI data, three Weak-Reversals and two Strong Reversal Points are identified. The Japanese Yen is also oversold against the US Dollar as concerns the short term. But as in the cases of EUR and GBP, the Japanese Yen is expected to become even more oversold before a real reversal occurs.

Time Close Open High Low Volume TCI SHORT TCI LONG
2013.06.21 97.865 97.228 98.123 96.852 80541 -1.81% 53.48%
2013.06.24 97.708 97.899 98.69 97.21 73027 -2.00% 51.84%
2013.06.25 97.804 97.709 98.051 96.951 63723 -1.80% 53.88%
2013.06.26 97.69 97.792 98.223 97.227 63316 -2.71% 52.04%
2013.06.27 98.325 97.681 98.559 97.554 52577 -1.86% 57.87%
2013.06.28 99.117 98.324 99.439 98.324 59356 -0.85% 63.04%
2013.07.01 99.639 99.215 99.851 99.168 43569 0.21% 64.55%
2013.07.02 100.607 99.64 100.716 99.499 45564 1.74% 69.40%
2013.07.03 99.886 100.608 100.843 99.247 52981 0.61% 63.37%
2013.07.04 100.011 99.889 100.15 99.484 37271 1.49% 62.66%
2013.07.05 101.17 100.011 101.213 99.879 48733 3.79% 69.93%
(TCI Forecast Begins -Focus on the TCI rate of change-)
(+1 trading-day) HIGH --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- 3.22% 68.07%
(+2 days) 1.71% 64.41%
(+3 days) 3.05% 64.09%
(+4 days) 3.31% 64.77%
(+5 days) 3.04% 64.60%
(+6 days) HIGH --Strong-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- 3.99% 65.32%
(+7 days)  3.60% 63.93%
(+8 days) 3.64% 62.89%
(+9 days) HIGH --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- 4.16% 61.52%
(+10 days)  3.17% 60.65%
(+11 days) 2.56% 57.76%
(+12 days) HIGH --Weak-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- 4.00% 58.58%
(+13 days) 3.72% 57.28%
(+14 days) 3.82% 55.76%
(+15 days) HIGH --Strong-Potential TCI Reversal Point AFTER-- 4.35% 56.71%
(+16 days) 4.06% 56.52%
(+17 days) 3.55% 54.12%
(+18 days) 2.66% 51.44%
(+19 days) 2.54% 51.14%
(+20 days) 2.13% 50.56%
(+21 days) 1.90% 51.76%

■ Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst 

Free Forex Trading Signals

for Trading Center, 5th of July 2013

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