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Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD

This EURUSD technical analysis report is made using a 4-Hour chart and a 1-Day chart on MT4 combined with the results of Trading Center’s Indicator (TCI results). 

EURUSD Price Action and Short-Term Trend

Conclusions deriving from the analysis of EURUSD price action:

The H4 EURUSD chart indicates a downtrend while the D1 chart does not confirm it. In other words, there is no clear short-term trend. If EURUSD moves above 1.358 then the short-trend could be turned bullish for a while. From the other hand, if EURUSD moves clearly below 1.345 then the trend could be considered as strongly bearish.

Currently: 1.3541

Short-Term Bullish Trigger: 1.358

Strong Bearish Trigger: 1.345

Chart: EURUSD February 2013-October 2013

The TCI Short-Term Results

Here are the results of TCI on EURUSD (press the tab to see the results):

Table TCI EURUSD Results:

Date Close High Low Change (%) Volatility (%) TCI
2013.09.12 1.32973 1.33239 1.32559 -0.09% 0.5% 1.25%
2013.09.13 1.32961 1.33206 1.32533 -0.01% 0.5% 0.89%
2013.09.16 1.33323 1.33847 1.33292 0.27% 0.4% 0.96%
2013.09.17 1.33566 1.33684 1.33245 0.18% 0.3% 1.29%
2013.09.18 1.35205 1.35408 1.33374 1.23% 1.5% 3.46%
2013.09.19 1.35279 1.35677 1.35001 0.06% 0.5% 3.30%
2013.09.20 1.35236 1.35478 1.3497 -0.03% 0.4% 3.27%
2013.09.23 1.34919 1.3547 1.34787 -0.23% 0.5% 2.32%
2013.09.24 1.34723 1.3518 1.34637 -0.15% 0.4% 1.98%
2013.09.25 1.35248 1.35362 1.34614 0.39% 0.6% 1.88%
2013.09.26 1.34877 1.35298 1.34716 -0.27% 0.4% 1.61%
2013.09.27 1.3521 1.35637 1.34736 0.25% 0.7% 2.30%
2013.09.30 1.35246 1.3555 1.3477 0.03% 0.6% 2.38%
2013.10.01 1.35245 1.3587 1.35162 0.00% 0.5% 2.36%
2013.10.02 1.35776 1.36062 1.35043 0.39% 0.8% 2.46%
2013.10.03 1.36177 1.36454 1.35768 0.30% 0.5% 2.99%
2013.10.04 1.35541 1.36309 1.35379 -0.47% 0.7% 2.35%
2013.10.07 1.35797 1.35903 1.35418 0.19% 0.4% 1.83%
2013.10.08 1.3572 1.36063 1.35567 -0.06% 0.4% 1.81%
2013.10.09 1.3522 1.36037 1.34852 -0.37% 0.9% 0.95%
2013.10.10 1.35188 1.35453 1.34869 -0.02% 0.4% 0.67%
2013.10.11 1.35412 1.35808 1.35174 0.17% 0.5% 1.12%
(+1 trading day) Regional Low         0.76%
(+2)           0.97%
(+3)           1.46%
(+4)           1.02%
(+5)           1.15%
(+6)           1.18%
(+7)           1.06%
(+8) Regional High       1.62%
(+9) Trend Reversal After       1.17%
(+10)           0.96%
(+11)           0.89%
(+12)           0.67%
(+13)           0.71%
(+14)           0.56%
(+15)           0.44%

As we can see in the above table, EURUSD TCI is now at +1.12%. It is correcting from the highest indication +3.46% in the 18th of September. It looks like TCI is not forming a clear trend at the time, but the most probable scenario is that EURUSD will try ones more to form a new high (+8 trading days), and after that, a trend reversal (↓) is very probable to occur.

The EURUSD TCI Mid-Term Analysis

TCI is today at +1.12% and has indicated a regional high of +3.46% during September. The following chart suggests that the overbought area of TCI indications is formed above TCI>+4% and below TCI=10%. So the overbought levels of TCI have not been reached recently and that is why this EURUSD market can not be considered as overbought. The TCI that follows corresponds to the period starting in 2009 and ending today (October, 13 2013).

Daily TCI Chart 2009-2013

Mid-Term EURUSD Cycle

EURUSD rally started in July 2013 when the exchange rate was about 1.275:

◘ Lowest Point: 1.2750 (July 9th)

◘ Regional Low: 1.3104 (September 6th)

◘ Highest Point: 1.3645 (October 3rd)

As we have witnessed many times in 2013, the European Central Bank wants EURUSD above 1.28, so when EURUSD moves below 1.28, ECB find ways to interfere and support Euro. Keep in mind that this interference will not last forever, probably it will end in the first semester of 2014.

Upcoming EURUSD News

Here are all important upcoming news for EURO:

 

DATE IMPACT NEWS
10/14/2013 9:00 AVERAGE Industrial Production Euro-Zone (MoM)
10/14/2013 9:00 AVERAGE Industrial Production Euro-Zone (yoy)
10/15/2013 0:00 AVERAGE Import Price Index Germany (MoM)
10/15/2013 0:00 AVERAGE Import Price Index Germany (YoY)
10/15/2013 8:30 AVERAGE Italian General Government Debt
10/15/2013 9:00 STRONG Euro-Zone Survey (ZEW Economic Sentiment)
10/15/2013 9:00 STRONG Germany Survey (ZEW Economic Sentiment)
10/16/2013 9:00 STRONG Consumer Price Index Euro-Zone (MoM)
10/16/2013 9:00 STRONG Consumer Price Index Euro-Zone (YoY)
10/16/2013 9:00 STRONG Consumer Price Index - Core Euro-Zone (YoY)
10/16/2013 9:00 AVERAGE Trade Balance Euro-Zone
10/17/2013 8:00 AVERAGE Current Account Euro-Zone
10/17/2013 9:00 AVERAGE Construction Output s.a. Euro-Zone (MoM)
10/17/2013 9:00 AVERAGE Construction Output w.d.a. Euro-Zone (YoY)

Here are all important upcoming news for the US Dollar:

 

DATE IMPACT NEWS
10/15/2013 0:00 AVERAGE US Monthly Budget Statement
10/15/2013 14:00 AVERAGE Fed's Monetary Policy (Dudley Speaking in Mexico)
10/15/2013 21:00 AVERAGE EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update
10/15/2013 23:15 AVERAGE Fed's on Economy (Fisher in New York)
10/16/2013 0:00 AVERAGE Net Long-term US TIC Flows
10/16/2013 0:00 AVERAGE Total Net US TIC Flows
10/16/2013 11:00 AVERAGE US Mortgage Applications
10/16/2013 13:00 AVERAGE Net Long-term US TIC Flows
10/16/2013 14:00 HIGH NAHB US Housing Market Index
10/16/2013 17:30 AVERAGE Fed's Event (Pianalto in Ohio)
10/16/2013 18:00 HIGH US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/16/2013 21:30 AVERAGE Fed's Event (George in Oklahoma City)
10/16/2013 22:45 AVERAGE Fed's Event (Fisher in New York)
10/17/2013 0:00 HIGH US Building Permits (MoM)
10/17/2013 0:00 HIGH Deadline on US Debt Ceiling
10/17/2013 0:00 AVERAGE US Housing Starts
10/17/2013 0:00 HIGH US Housing Starts (MoM)
10/17/2013 12:30 AVERAGE US Building Permits
10/17/2013 12:30 AVERAGE US Continuing Claims
10/17/2013 12:30 AVERAGE US Housing Starts
10/17/2013 12:30 HIGH US Initial Jobless Claims
10/17/2013 14:00 AVERAGE Philadelphia Fed.
10/17/2013 14:30 AVERAGE Natural Gas US Storage Change (EIA)
10/17/2013 16:45 AVERAGE Fed's Event (Evans in Wisconsin)
10/17/2013 18:45 AVERAGE Fed's Event (Kocherlakota in Montana)
10/18/2013 14:00 AVERAGE API US Monthly Statistical Report
10/18/2013 14:00 HIGH US Leading Indicators
10/18/2013 18:00 AVERAGE Fed's Event (Evans in Chicago)

 

A Few Words about Money Management, Leverage and Trading Cost

Trading Center’s technical analysis reports are focusing on mid-term and short-term trading but not on intraday trading. The intraday trend can hardly be forecasted, so we don’t want to trade it. Instead, we trade the market focusing on periods with duration from at least 2 to 10 days. The longer the time frame we use the less vulnerable we become to what is called as the ‘market noise’. From the other hand, longer trading periods have the disadvantage of higher swap charges. So the solution in order to maintain our trading cost low is to trade mid-term periods using lower leverage.

Leverage should not be considered as a trading friend, it is just a lifting tool that we should use according to our trades individual risk and return. If the risk of a trade is too high and we use too much leverage then our whole money management system may collapse, and that means extreme losses. Use leverage wisely, and leave sufficient space for your stop-losses.

Keep in mind that the intraday technical analysis is not useless. It is valuable in defining the optimal entry/exit in the market. In other words, intraday technical analysis can provide us with a ‘trigger’ to execute our mid-term trades.

 

■ Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst 

EURUSD Forex Trading Signal, for Trading Center, October 13th 2013 (before opening)

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