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TCI Trading Signals -Nasdaq Composite Report May 2014

TCI Trading Signals and the NASDAQ Composite Analysis for May 2014

“Cash will be king again, it always become king at the end”

This TCI analysis concerns the Nasdaq Composite Index. We are going to investigate Nasdaq Composite and forecast its course for the upcoming years. But before investigate further Nasdaq Composite let’s evaluate our previous TCI signal on GBPUSD.

Previous TCI Forex Trading Signal

In our previous trading signal published on April, 28th we have forecasted an uptrend for the British Pound against the US Dollar using the TCI model.

“TCI is a technical analysis model developed 100% in-house by TradingCenter.org”

By that time GBPUSD was traded at 1.6845. Our target price for GBPUSD was set at 1.7000 while we have indicated the 6th of May as the selling target date. After the 6th of May we have forecasted a correction as you may see in the main article and in the TCI table presented on that report. Actually, GBPUSD reached 1.6956 during the 6th of May 2014. After that date a strong correction started, as we have forecasted, which led GBPUSD to 1.6730 (14th of May). Now GBPUSD is traded at about 1.6820. Although the 1.7000 levels were reached but not exactly met the GBPUSD TCI signal was confirmed.

Find the full GBPUSD signal here

TCI Indications on Nasdaq Composite for May 2014

As we have mentioned in the past the real power of TCI is its ability to forecast the time pattern. By using the TCI-Short Model (TCI v1.2) we are going to forecast the course of Nasdaq Composite for May 2014. TCI indicates a short-term upcoming bullish market for Nasdaq ending in the 27th of May 2014.

■ Selling Target: 27th of May 2014

Table: TCI-Short Indications on Nasdaq Composite

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Change (%)

TCI-Short

28-Apr-14

4,074.40

4,111.59

4,014.17

2,348,320,000

-0.03%

-3.01%

29-Apr-14

4,103.54

4,111.45

4,070.25

1,911,240,000

0.72%

-2.83%

30-Apr-14

4,114.56

4,116.14

4,070.63

2,151,400,000

0.27%

-2.10%

1-May-14

4,127.45

4,149.56

4,105.61

2,077,040,000

0.31%

-2.02%

2-May-14

4,123.90

4,145.06

4,115.89

1,844,790,000

-0.09%

-2.25%

5-May-14

4,138.06

4,138.34

4,086.35

1,561,170,000

0.34%

-0.60%

6-May-14

4,080.76

4,132.46

4,080.76

1,850,610,000

-1.38%

-1.76%

7-May-14

4,067.67

4,091.03

4,021.05

2,486,030,000

-0.32%

-1.52%

8-May-14

4,051.50

4,109.20

4,039.91

2,411,940,000

-0.40%

-2.09%

9-May-14

4,071.87

4,071.87

4,025.24

1,976,160,000

0.50%

-1.47%

12-May-14

4,143.86

4,146.54

4,092.09

1,880,020,000

1.77%

1.99%

13-May-14

4,130.17

4,155.13

4,128.01

1,923,480,000

-0.33%

1.72%

14-May-14

4,100.63

4,132.33

4,093.83

1,764,430,000

-0.72%

0.10%

15-May-14

4,069.29

4,098.25

4,035.96

2,083,030,000

-0.76%

-1.04%

16-May-14

4,090.59

4,091.16

4,044.27

1,741,070,000

0.52%

-0.05%

(+1 Day) 19-May

 

 

 

 

 

0.73%

(+2 Days) 20-May

 

 

 

 

 

1.13%

(+3 Days) 21-May

 

 

 

 

 

0.54%

(+4 Days) 22-May

 

 

 

 

 

-0.16%

(+5 Days) 23-May

 

 

 

 

 

1.39%

(+6 Days) 27-May

SELLING TARGET DATE

 

 

 

 

2.66%

(+7 Days) 28-May

AFTER CORRECTION BEGINS

 

 

 

 

2.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.50%

Note that the 26th of May 2014 is the Memorial Day and the New York Stock Exchange will stay closed.

The previous 2013 Nasdaq Composite Analysis –TradingCenter Full Confirmation

One year ago we have published an analysis on Nasdaq Composite in order to forecast the strength and the duration of the current bullish market. By that time Nasdaq Composite was found at about 3,200 points. In that analysis we have forecasted that Nasdaq Composite will probably climb to 4,150 points. The selling target date, one year back, was set at the end of March 2014. Actually Nasdaq Composite reached 4,371 points during March, 7th 2014 and then a strong correction begun.

52 Week Range: 3,294.95 - 4,371.70

Find here the Nasdaq Composite Full April 2013 Forecast and Analysis

This Nasdaq Composite analysis was confirmed, let’s see what happens next.

Nasdaq Composite –Historic Cycle

The current Nasdaq bullish market started on March 9th 2009 from 1,265 points. Now Nasdaq Composite is found at 4,090 points and it is still close to its 10-year high of 4,371.71 (March 2014).

From that point of view Nasdaq market has performed a tremendous return during the past five years.

Historically speaking the Nasdaq Composite all-time high is at 5,132.52 points (close 5,048.62) reached in March, 10th 2000.

■ The 2013 Nasdaq analysis includes full data about the Nasdaq Composite historic cycles

Nasdaq Composite Historic Chart and the TCI Long Indications

In the following chart you may see the Nasdaq Composite historic course plus a TCI long chart (v1.2).

Upper Chart: Nasdaq Composite Daily Closings and the 500 Simple Moving Average

Lower Chart: TCI-Long on Nasdaq Composite (this is the new version v1.2 for TCI Long)

Nasdaq Composite Historic and TCI Long

TCI-Long indicates that Nasdaq Composite has made a fair correction during the past month and now it can’t be seen as a clear technically overbought market. What is worrying is the time pattern. The long-term Nasdaq cycle seems to be coming to an end.

Stock-markets Move in Time Cycles as Fundamentals

Stock-markets tend to follow certain time cycles as fundamental developments tend to follow certain time cycles. This is due to a number of reasons. The most important reason is the course of interest rates which follows too a certain pattern. Regarding the stock-markets there is also a particular pattern concerning the capital flow of the smart money. Excessive returns create the need for realizing profits and that situation usually leads to the end of bull markets.

Conclusion –Be Careful Traders, Cash will be King Again

We can’t know for sure if the Nasdaq Composite is found at the starting of a new bearish market, or not, but this scenario is becoming more and more probable. Here are some good reasons for that:

■ The US and the UK economy slowly enter a phase of increased interest rates (most probably as 2015 starts). ECB will be forced to increase interest rates too.

■ The world Stock-Markets have performed tremendous returns since 2009 and that leads consequently to the realization of profits

■ The concerns about the real conditions of the Chinese economy will grow stronger during the next couple of years

■ The crisis in Ukraine is deep and it will most probably trigger similar crisis to many neighboring European countries with similar minority issues

We are highly recommending to all stock traders to realize a part of their profits. Don’t be greed. Realize 50% of your profits and wait for what comes next. Cash will be king again, it always become king at the end.

 

■ George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

for TradingCenter.org, (May 19th, 2014 before opening)


 

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