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EURUSD Forex Trading Signal June 2014

EURUSD Forex Trading Signal June 2014

May has proved once more an unfavorable month for EURUSD. The recent results of the European Elections formed the impression in the market that the European Economy will make an important turn towards growth in the upcoming years. In May 2014, the ECB President Mario Draghi argued that the EURO strength is the cause for a ‘Serious Concern’. The potential for a new EU growth policy will consequently lead to a more flexible Euro rate against the US Dollar the next couple of years. As concerns the long-term perspective, that is bad news for Euro.

On the other hand, as concerns the short-term EURUSD course, according to our TCI Model the European Currency against the US Dollar has entered an oversold area that may lead EURUSD higher in the upcoming weeks. Note that June is traditionally a very good month for EUR against the USD (check the statistics table below this article).

The current TCI trading signal forecast the course of EURUSD as concerns the upcoming weeks.

Forex Asset: EURUSD

Rate: 1.36328

TCI Forecast: Uptrend Correction (↑)

Before investigating further EURUSD let’s evaluate our previous signal on the Nasdaq Composite.

Previous TCI Trading Signal on Nasdaq Composite

In our previous TCI analysis we have indicated an upcoming short-term bullish market for Nasdaq Composite, although we keep a negative perspective as concerns the long-term.

By the time of our previous trading signal (May, 19th before opening) Nasdaq was found at 4,090.57 points. We have indicated an upcoming bullish market and a selling target for the 27th of May 2014. Today Nasdaq is found at 4,242.62 points and our trading signal based on TCI indications was fully confirmed.

TCI Signal: Short-Term Bullish Market

Nasdaq Starting: 4,090.57 points

Selling Target: 27th of May 2014

Nasdaq Today: 4,242.62 points

You can find the full Nasdaq Composite Trading Signal here and the TCI indications in the incorporated table.

Nasdaq Composite Trading Signal for May 2014

EURUSD Macroeconomic Outlook

Here are some important macroeconomic updates regarding EURUSD:

■ The ECB meets in June 5th and the forecast is a cut on its deposit and main refinancing rates.

■ According to 54 out of 56 Bloomberg analysts, the main Euro refinancing rate is expected to be reduced to 0.1% percent from 0.25% percent.

■ The annual rate of inflation in Italy and Spain slowed in May 2014.

■ The US consumer spending fell 0.1% in April (month-to-month) while the forecast was for a 0.2% increase.

■ Personal income in the US during April rose 0.3%, as the analysts have forecasted.

■ The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for May 2014 was 81.9 (forecasts for 82.5).

EURUSD Statistics for June 2014

These are the historic average returns for EURUSD based on 13.5 years of statistics by TradingCenter. As you may see, June is traditionally a good month for Euro against the US Dollar. EUR against the USD performs +0.62% on average during June. In a 14-period sample of EURUSD, 9 times has been bullish and 5 times has been bearish during June.

MONTH

AGGREGATE EURUSD CHANGE (%)

AVERAGE EURUSD CHANGE

TIMES(↑↓)

AVERAGE EURUSD DAILY VOLATILITY

APRIL

10.10%

0.72%

7↑ 7↓

0.834%

MAY

-7.28%

-0.52%

6↑ 8↓

0.923%

JUNE

8.70%

0.62%

9↑ 5↓

0.880%

More Statistics about EURUSD here

EURUSD Short-Term Technical Analysis

These are some important short-term levels for EURUSD. The broad EURUSD channel remains between 1.3500 and 1.3900.

EURUSD Today: 1.36328

Short Term Supply Level: 1.3800 / 1.3829

Short Term Demand Level: 1.3585 / 1.3500

Chart: EURUSD 1-Day Chart Plus Moving Averages 50-Days and 200-Days

EURUSD Live Forex Trading Signal

TCI on EURUSD for June 2014

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a Technical Analysis Model designed by TradingCenter. More About the TCI Indicator

These are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD for the upcoming weeks. As you can see in the table below TCI indicated a clear local low for EURUSD during the 28th of May 2014 (-2.64%). After that date EURUSD entered a correctional pattern that according to TCI is expected to be enforced during the upcoming weeks.

Table: TCI on EURUSD for June 2014

Date

Close

High

Low

Change (%)

Volatility

TCI

2014.05.14

1.37131

1.37299

1.36972

0.08%

0.2%

-2.01%

2014.05.15

1.3708

1.37315

1.36476

-0.04%

0.6%

-1.61%

2014.05.16

1.36924

1.37259

1.36845

-0.11%

0.3%

-1.66%

2014.05.19

1.37078

1.3733

1.36903

0.11%

0.3%

-1.64%

2014.05.20

1.36997

1.37128

1.36769

-0.06%

0.3%

-1.57%

2014.05.21

1.36852

1.37224

1.36339

-0.11%

0.6%

-1.61%

2014.05.22

1.36543

1.36867

1.36444

-0.23%

0.3%

-2.06%

2014.05.23

1.36279

1.36572

1.36149

-0.19%

0.3%

-2.01%

2014.05.26

1.36444

1.36536

1.36124

0.12%

0.3%

-2.21%

2014.05.27

1.36327

1.36677

1.36116

-0.09%

0.4%

-2.16%

2014.05.28

1.35893

1.36368

1.35872

-0.32%

0.4%

-2.64%

2014.05.29

1.36005

1.36247

1.35853

0.08%

0.3%

-2.53%

2014.05.30

1.36328

1.36493

1.35977

0.24%

0.4%

-2.31%

(+1 Trading Day) Monday 2nd 2014

     

-2.20%

(+2 Trading Days)

       

-1.51%

(+3 Trading Days)

       

-0.82%

(+4 Trading Days)

       

-0.84%

(+5 Trading Days)

       

-0.52%

(+6 Trading Days) Monday 9th 2014

     

-0.52%

(+7 Trading Days)

       

-0.54%

(+8 Trading Days)

       

-0.40%

(+9 Trading Days)

       

-0.48%

(+10 Trading Days)

       

-0.45%

(+11 Trading Days) Monday 16th 2014

   

-0.34%

(+12 Trading Days)

       

-0.15%

(+13 Trading Days)

       

-0.04%


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George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst (June, 1st 2014)

EURUSD Trading Signal

TradingCenter (2014)

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