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Forex Trade Signals: USDJPY September 2014

Forex Trade Signals: USDJPY September 2014 

◙ Forex Asset: USDJPY

◙ TCI Forecast: Correction (↓) is closing

USDJPY Outlook

In numerous previous articles we have highlighted the upcoming strength of the US Dollar. USD interest rates will rise during 2015 as FED’s inflation concerns will grow stronger than its unemployment concerns. During the past few weeks the US Dollar has shown real strength. This analysis is focused on the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. USDJPY is found now at 108.626 considerably higher than the 104.337 levels found in the start of September 2014. We are going to analyze if the current bullish USDJPY trend is likely to be continued or it is the time for a correction.

USDJPY Analysis Preface

As you can see in the chart below, USJPY is booming for quite some time. Just two years ago, USJPY was found at 77.00 (September 2012) now it is found above 108.00. This tremendous uptrend can be explained as the Central Bank of Japan during the past 2 years has implemented a highly flexible monetary policy aiming to strengthen the growth potential of the weak Japanese economy.

USDJPY Technical Analysis - What happens next regarding USDJPY?

As concerns the long-run, the ultimate target for USDJPY is between 119.00 and 124.00. These levels were reached again back in 2006. To be honest I believe that during 2015 we are going to witness USDJPY trading at 120.00. Certainly this can not happen in one or two months. The current levels must be absorbed 100% before USDJPY moves higher.

Here are the closest supply (resistance) and demand (support) USDJPY levels.

◙ (↑) Resistance / Supply Levels:

110.75 (Strong) | 112.30 (Strong) | 114.50 (Strong)

◙ (↓) Support / Demand Levels:

107.15 | 106.65 | 104.70 | 103.80 (Strong) | 101.20 (Strong)

USDJPY FOREX SIGNAL

If we focus on the above chart we are going to see that USDJPY has already moved strongly during the past two weeks and RSI readings are found in highly overbought levels. Let’s see now what TCI indicates.

TCI on USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter. ► More About TCI

As you can see in the table (press slider) TCI indicates that USDJPY is found already in overbought levels (+6.85 for TCI-34 periods and +7.7% for TCI-50 periods). That will probably result to a bearish trend regarding USDJPY.

Two (2) USDJPY Possible Turnaround Dates:

◙ 1ST TARGET: 9/19/2014

◙ 2ND TARGET: 9/24/2014

Here are all TCI Indications regarding USDJPY (press the slider below).

Table: TCI on USDJPY

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Change %

Volatility

TCI (34)

TCI (50)

2014.08.29

104.072

104.101

103.65

68104

0.35%

0.4%

2.52%

2.71%

2014.09.01

104.337

104.339

104.097

37277

0.25%

0.2%

2.76%

3.11%

2014.09.02

105.079

105.208

104.283

93036

0.71%

0.9%

3.95%

4.08%

2014.09.03

104.78

105.304

104.735

98120

-0.28%

0.5%

3.71%

3.89%

2014.09.04

105.252

105.361

104.752

103349

0.45%

0.6%

4.46%

4.57%

2014.09.05

105.076

105.70

104.678

108817

-0.17%

1.0%

3.90%

4.04%

2014.09.08

106.012

106.083

104.985

123225

0.89%

1.0%

5.17%

5.42%

2014.09.09

106.185

106.469

105.931

127686

0.16%

0.5%

5.02%

5.38%

2014.09.10

106.841

106.88

106.036

143505

0.62%

0.8%

5.93%

6.33%

2014.09.11

107.094

107.191

106.634

131442

0.24%

0.5%

6.08%

6.62%

2014.09.12

107.343

107.388

106.956

104624

0.23%

0.4%

6.42%

7.15%

2014.09.15

107.172

107.357

107.005

80837

-0.16%

0.3%

5.87%

6.79%

2014.09.16

107.113

107.327

106.805

122074

-0.06%

0.5%

5.32%

6.34%

2014.09.17

108.357

108.383

107.081

125561

1.16%

1.2%

6.97%

7.88%

2014.09.18

(middle-session)

108.626

108.865

108.305

62877

0.25%

0.5%

6.85%

7.70%

(+1 Trading Days)

1ST TARGET: 9/19/2014 POSSIBLE TURNAROUND DATE

6.56%

7.58%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

6.51%

7.68%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

6.59%

7.89%

(+4 Trading Days)-

2ND TARGET: 9/24/2014 POSSIBLE TURNAROUND DATE

6.27%

7.67%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

6.02%

7.64%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

5.96%

7.64%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

5.49%

7.23%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

5.24%

6.99%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

4.94%

6.82%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

5.15%

7.24%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

4.86%

6.98%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

4.46%

6.68%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.63%

6.15%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.54%

6.07%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.24%

5.70%

USDJPY Statistics

Here are the Statistics for USDJPY based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter. As you can see September is a neutral month for USDJPY (7↑ 6↓) while October is a month that USDJPY usually moves lower (5↑ 8↓).

MONTH

AVERAGE USDJPY CHANGE

TIMES (↑↓)

 USDJPY AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY

 USDJPY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME

SEPTEMBER

-0.21%

7↑ 6↓

0.864%

317,518

OCTOBER

-0.94%

5↑ 8↓

0.862%

412,141

More USDJPY Statistics Here

Short Conclusion

USDJPY will probably correct during the upcoming weeks but this will just prove the perfect chance for a new uptrend towards 114.50.

 

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G.Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

Free Forex Trading Signals: USDJPY

TradingCenter (2014)

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