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Free Forex Trading Signals: USD October 2014

US Dollar against other Majors October-November 2014

Market / Asset: Forex / US Dollar against other Majors

TCI Forecast: USD correction is coming to an end, then the formation of a new USD uptrend (?)

Momentum: New Uptrend is expected to commence in the last few days of October 2014 and to peak during late November 2014

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

The strength of the US Dollar as concerns the next 6-12 months is indisputable, but Forex currencies are not trading like shares and this strength can not be transformed into a single directional trend. During September 2014 the US Dollar appreciated very rapidly against other majors as you can see in the TCI tables presented below. This rapid and straightforward move created an overbought US Dollar market (EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD). Correction was inevitable. Neither the FED nor the ECB are willing to allow straightforward currency moves which may jeopardize real economy in both continents. The US Dollar appreciation will happen in the right timing and according to the right market momentum. In that context we shall expect USD bullish markets of 4-6% and then corrections of 2-3% in time patterns lasting 3-4 months in overall.

Evaluating the Previous Forex Trading Signal on USDJPY (September 2014)

In our previous Forex Trading Signal we had indicate an upcoming correction on USDJPY. By that time USDJPY was trading at 108.626. In addition we have indicated as the first strong resistance level 110.75. USDJPY in October the 1st reached 110.80 and after the correction started. During October the 15th, USDJPY reached the local low of 105.193. The signal was confirmed.

The Previous Forex Signal: ?Forex Trade Signals -USDJPY September 2014

TCI on USD against Other Majors

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a complete Technical Analysis Tool developed by TradingCenter. What makes TCI unique is that it can forecast both upcoming trends and time pattern formations. ?More About TCI

Here are the TCI Indications regarding the US Dollar against EUR, GBP and JPY:

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date Close High Low Volume Change (%) Volatility (%) TCI
2014.10.01 1.26209 1.26388 1.25826 162498 -0.06% 0.4% -3.46%
2014.10.02 1.26671 1.26981 1.2613 204047 0.37% 0.7% -2.43%
2014.10.03 1.25135 1.26733 1.24996 170146 -1.21% 1.4% -4.67%
2014.10.06 1.26532 1.26738 1.25078 170494 1.12% 1.3% -2.42%
2014.10.07 1.26675 1.26809 1.25827 259627 0.11% 0.8% -1.99%
2014.10.08 1.27321 1.27481 1.26216 263136 0.51% 1.0% -1.00%
2014.10.09 1.26894 1.27905 1.26635 286758 -0.34% 1.0% -1.80%
2014.10.10 1.26277 1.2715 1.26048 187810 -0.49% 0.9% -2.32%
2014.10.13 1.27501 1.27597 1.26191 170409 0.97% 1.1% -0.17%
2014.10.14 1.26559 1.27666 1.26389 209819 -0.74% 1.0% -1.98%
2014.10.15 1.28357 1.2885 1.26239 326137 1.42% 2.1% 1.24%
2014.10.16 1.28068 1.28439 1.27049 301769 -0.23% 1.1% 1.00%
2014.10.17 1.27591 1.28356 1.27429 184611 -0.37% 0.7% 0.62%
2014.10.20 1.27981 1.28159 1.27302 153448 0.31% 0.7% 1.27%
2014.10.21 1.27147 1.28394 1.27131 188975 -0.65% 1.0% 0.31%
2014.10.22 1.26922 1.27388 1.26798 59072 -0.18% 0.5% 0.39%
(+1 Trading Days)           0.09%
(+2 Trading Days)           0.60%
(+3 Trading Days)           0.18%
(+4 Trading Days)           0.20%
(+5 Trading Days)           1.56%
(+6 Trading Days)           0.28%
(+7 Trading Days)           0.30%
(+8 Trading Days)           -0.54%
(+9 Trading Days)           -0.15%
(+10 Trading Days)           0.41%
(+11 Trading Days)           -0.58%
(+12 Trading Days)           0.29%
(+13 Trading Days)           -0.96%
(+14 Trading Days)           -0.98%
(+15 Trading Days)           -0.60%

Table: TCI on GBPUSD

Date Close High Low Volume Change (%) Volatility (%) TCI
2014.10.01 1.61845 1.62506 1.61608 179798 -0.17% 0.6% -2.99%
2014.10.02 1.61432 1.62488 1.61116 203708 -0.26% 0.9% -3.49%
2014.10.03 1.59675 1.61579 1.59512 193376 -1.09% 1.3% -5.12%
2014.10.06 1.60807 1.60981 1.5953 150684 0.71% 0.9% -3.42%
2014.10.07 1.60944 1.6128 1.60251 204807 0.09% 0.6% -2.71%
2014.10.08 1.61666 1.61806 1.60316 218653 0.45% 0.9% -1.38%
2014.10.09 1.61156 1.62259 1.61032 233861 -0.32% 0.8% -2.35%
2014.10.10 1.60746 1.61344 1.60077 173893 -0.25% 0.8% -2.49%
2014.10.13 1.60837 1.61258 1.605 152783 0.06% 0.5% -2.48%
2014.10.14 1.59013 1.60961 1.58963 178891 -1.13% 1.3% -4.43%
2014.10.15 1.60182 1.60675 1.58737 291454 0.74% 1.2% -3.24%
2014.10.16 1.60859 1.60959 1.59403 298270 0.42% 1.0% -2.26%
2014.10.17 1.60918 1.61252 1.6029 213164 0.04% 0.6% -2.29%
2014.10.20 1.6162 1.61786 1.60791 166084 0.44% 0.6% -0.82%
2014.10.21 1.61097 1.61833 1.61085 187404 -0.32% 0.5% -1.11%
2014.10.22 1.6027 1.61299 1.60108 60587 -0.51% 0.7% -1.60%
(+1 Trading Days)           -1.81%
(+2 Trading Days)           -0.96%
(+3 Trading Days)           -1.11%
(+4 Trading Days)           -1.40%
(+5 Trading Days)           -1.32%
(+6 Trading Days)           -1.40%
(+7 Trading Days)           -0.86%
(+8 Trading Days)           -0.75%
(+9 Trading Days)           -1.07%
(+10 Trading Days)           -1.59%
(+11 Trading Days)           -1.34%
(+12 Trading Days)           -1.37%
(+13 Trading Days)           -1.33%
(+14 Trading Days)           -1.14%
(+15 Trading Days)           -0.69%

Table: TCI on USDJPY

Date Close High Low Volume Change (%) Volatility (%) TCI
2014.10.01 108.876 110.08 108.854 143069 -0.70% 1.1% 5.01%
2014.10.02 108.404 109.106 108.002 190666 -0.43% 1.0% 4.66%
2014.10.03 109.745 109.896 108.331 143829 1.24% 1.4% 6.32%
2014.10.06 108.766 109.836 108.645 135708 -0.89% 1.1% 4.34%
2014.10.07 108.013 109.224 107.812 213017 -0.69% 1.3% 2.17%
2014.10.08 108.067 108.736 107.746 214793 0.05% 0.9% 2.08%
2014.10.09 107.82 108.307 107.521 238884 -0.23% 0.7% 1.63%
2014.10.10 107.641 108.146 107.607 207376 -0.17% 0.5% 0.67%
2014.10.13 106.827 107.587 106.757 166735 -0.76% 0.8% -0.36%
2014.10.14 107.039 107.305 106.664 224526 0.20% 0.6% 0.46%
2014.10.15 105.909 107.489 105.193 331234 -1.06% 2.2% -1.42%
2014.10.16 106.319 106.453 105.499 343044 0.39% 0.9% -1.05%
2014.10.17 106.867 106.933 106.126 218265 0.52% 0.8% -0.18%
2014.10.20 106.933 107.383 106.775 169619 0.06% 0.6% -0.26%
2014.10.21 106.981 107.005 106.242 176139 0.04% 0.7% 0.41%
2014.10.22 106.875 107.099 106.781 48323 -0.10% 0.3% -0.03%
(+1 Trading Days)           0.15%
(+2 Trading Days)           -0.29%
(+3 Trading Days)           -0.37%
(+4 Trading Days)           -0.87%
(+5 Trading Days)           -1.08%
(+6 Trading Days)           -0.76%
(+7 Trading Days)           -0.63%
(+8 Trading Days)           -0.83%
(+9 Trading Days)           -1.30%
(+10 Trading Days)           -1.27%
(+11 Trading Days)           -1.35%
(+12 Trading Days)           -1.23%
(+13 Trading Days)           -1.22%
(+14 Trading Days)           -1.10%
(+15 Trading Days)           -0.98%

USD Statistics against Euro, British Sterling and Japanese Yen

Below you may find the US Dollar Statistics for the upcoming months based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter.

Table: EURUSD Statistics

MONTH

AVERAGE CHANGE

TIMES(??)

 AVERAGE VOLATILITY

OCTOBER

-0.50%

7? 6?

0.904%

NOVEMBER

0.49%

7? 6?

0.909%

DECEMBER

1.95%

8? 5?

0.817%

As you can see in the above table, the Euro usually finishes the year very strongly, therefore if you short the Euro against the USD keep your positions not more than early December 2014. ?More Statistics Here

Table: GBPUSD Statistics

MONTH

AVERAGE CHANGE

TIMES(??)

AVERAGE VOLATILITY

OCTOBER

0.08%

8? 5?

0.831%

NOVEMBER

-0.61%

4? 9?

0.839%

DECEMBER

0.37%

5? 8?

0.783%

Table: USDJPY Statistics

MONTH

AVERAGE CHANGE

TIMES (??)

 AVERAGE VOLATILITY

OCTOBER

-0.94%

5? 8?

0.862%

NOVEMBER

-0.23%

6? 7?

0.836%

DECEMBER

0.89%

7? 6?

0.778%

Recent Important News and Updates Related to USD and other Majors

-There are rumors that ECB purchased corporate bonds as a pretext of entering the new shorts.

-Paul Robson, RBS currency strategist said recently “The general takeaway here for a lot of people is that it shows commitment from the ECB trying to find ways to expand its balance sheet" and then he said "People still recognize that the US economy is some years ahead of the ECB, and that on a multi-quarter basis would suggest that EURUSD goes lower"

-David Tepper, who runs Appaloosa Management debt hedge fund ($20 billion) said recently that shorting the euro is the ‘best idea’. He believes that ECB will have to loosen the Eurozone monetary policy further by expanding its balance sheet in an effort to stimulate the economy.

-Fed meets next week and it is expected to expand its $4 trillion bond-buying program.

-As concerns the upcoming US inflation data, the annual CPI is expected 1.6% in September 2014 against 1.7% in August 2014

-The Core US CPI in September is expected to grow to 0.2% month to month and 1.7% year to year

-Koichi Takamatsu, head of Forex Trading at Nomura Securities said recently "The US CPI data will be very important. If the market turns risk-off, money will flow to US bonds. A weak figure will surely hurt the dollar".

-Russian Finance Minister (Anton Siluanov) stated recently that his ministry shall hold its first Forex deposit auction starting in early November 2014. These auctions shall face the shortage of USD and Euros among Russian banks.

-The Central Bank ofRussiahas spent more than 13 billion USD supporting the local currency (Ruble) just since early October.

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? Free Forex Trading Signals: US Dollar October-November 2014

George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

TradingCenter 22nd of October 2014

 

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