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Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Free Forex Trading Signals:

Historically, December is the Best Month to buy the Euro against the USD

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

TCI Forecast: Given neutral news, Euro is expected to turn bullish against the US Dollar (↑). The time of the new uptrend is expected during the first few days of December 2014

Potential Reversal Dates: the 26th of November 2014 or the 3rd of December 2014 (based on TCI readings)

In most of our 2014 Forex reports we have never lost a chance to highlight the strength of the US Dollar against the other majors. The US Dollar is moving in a strong uptrend against EUR and JPY based on the growing US economy and the upcoming period of rising US rates, starting in 2015. On the other hand, most of the other majors are becoming victims of slow-growing economies or even recession as in the case of Japan. If we take into account all these fundamental data, the long-term USD uptrend will most probably continue during the following months. The USD uptrend is strong but whenever the gains are extreme, correction is always inevitable. According to our analysis the month December 2014 will turn to be one of the months that the US Dollar will lose some ground (correct) against other majors and especially as concerns the EURO.

Evaluating the Previous Trading Signal of TradingCenter.org

Our previous trading signal was one of the best trading signals we have ever published on TradingCenter.org. Not only we have forecasted the upcoming USD appreciation against all majors during November 2014 but we have also forecasted the exact time for the beginning of this new uptrend (last days of October).

We said exactly: “USD correction is coming to an end, we expect the formation of a new USD uptrend (↑). The new uptrend is expected to commence in the last few days of October 2014 and to peak during late November2014”

By that time USDJPY was trading at 106.875, now it is trading at about 118.00. This is a huge difference in terms of winning pips, in just one month.

Find our previous trading signal here: ► Forex Trading Signal: USD October 2014

Forex Market Current Outlook

The Japanese Yen has been under huge selling pressure since Oct. 31st 2014 when the Bank of Japan announced more stimulus measures and after the recent disappointing release of the Japanese GDP. The British Pound Sterling has also been under pressure due to the disappointing inflation reports from Bank of England. As concerns the Euro area, Euro stills suffers from slow growth and limited inflation and tanks each time the President of ECB Mario Draghi decides to speak. If you are long on Euro you don’t want Mario Draghi to speak these days.

In such a problematic context the US Dollar is seen as a ‘safe heaven’ for global currency investors. In this analysis we are going to investigate what happens next regarding the US Dollar against other majors.

TCI on EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter.  More About TCI

Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD. As you can see in the following table, TCI has pointed a Local Low (-4.67%) in the 6th of November 2014, the next day EURUSD reacted (+0.64%) but then turned bearish again. Afterwards TCI indicated a Local Low in the 21st of November, and the next day EURUSD also reacted. As concerns what happens next, TCI indicates a new Low during the 26th of November (+2 days) and lastly on the 3rd of December 2014 (+7 days). Maybe, it is better to wait until the first days of December to go Long on EURUSD.

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Daily Change

TCI

2014.11.03

1.24801

1.25134

1.24381

131801

-0.33%

-3.11%

2014.11.04

1.25451

1.25768

1.24801

134263

0.52%

-2.31%

2014.11.05

1.24851

1.25664

1.24567

155775

-0.48%

-3.16%

2014.11.06

1.23743

1.25328

1.23634

164977

-0.89%

-4.67%

2014.11.07

1.24530

1.2469

1.23573

158729

0.64%

-3.13%

2014.11.10

1.24194

1.25087

1.24181

98326

-0.27%

-3.25%

2014.11.11

1.24729

1.24988

1.23937

116054

0.43%

-2.60%

2014.11.12

1.24374

1.24972

1.24185

146363

-0.28%

-2.61%

2014.11.13

1.24745

1.24912

1.24258

111440

0.30%

-1.99%

2014.11.14

1.25235

1.25458

1.23978

139606

0.39%

-1.43%

2014.11.17

1.24495

1.25768

1.24444

119019

-0.59%

-1.96%

2014.11.18

1.25355

1.25445

1.24427

119923

0.69%

-0.92%

2014.11.19

1.25529

1.25996

1.25116

129637

0.14%

-0.55%

2014.11.20

1.25384

1.25746

1.25036

147924

-0.12%

0.10%

2014.11.21

1.23875

1.25675

1.23743

151191

-1.20%

-2.92%

2014.11.24

1.24403

1.24440

1.23619

108080

0.43%

-1.94%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.34%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.39%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.59%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.96%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.39%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.17%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.29%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.79%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.78%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.59%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.30%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.03%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.12%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.31%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.65%

(+16 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.89%

(+17 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.14%

(+18 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.80%

(+19 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.65%

(+20 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.45%

The TCI readings as concerns USDJPY are extreme (10%+), but when important fundamental changes occur, as in the case of the Japanese Economy, no technical indicator can describe what happens next. Most probably USDJPY will test the levels of 121.00-122.00 before a serious correction happens.

Table: TCI on USDJPY

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Daily Change

TCI

2014.11.17

116.585

117.045

115.447

142943

0.27%

9.63%

2014.11.18

116.831

117.043

116.329

127556

0.21%

10.07%

2014.11.19

117.96

118.071

116.805

135876

0.97%

11.35%

2014.11.20

118.22

118.971

117.737

165693

0.22%

10.33%

2014.11.21

117.793

118.363

117.348

151779

-0.36%

9.69%

2014.11.24

118.263

118.476

117.569

102459

0.40%

10.52%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

10.42%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

10.20%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

9.88%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

10.07%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

8.78%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

8.76%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

8.54%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

7.74%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

7.52%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

7.34%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

7.24%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

6.31%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

6.29%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

6.33%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

6.05%

(+16 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

5.51%

(+17 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

5.23%

(+18 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

3.30%

(+19 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

2.43%

(+20 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

2.67%

TCI indicates that the British Pound is trading in clear oversold levels against the US Dollar. We shall expect a bullish GBPUSD as in the case of EURUSD, during December 2014.

Table: TCI on GBPUSD

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Daily Change

TCI

2014.10.01

1.61845

1.62506

1.61608

179798

-0.17%

-2.99%

2014.10.02

1.61432

1.62488

1.61116

203708

-0.26%

-3.49%

2014.10.03

1.59675

1.61579

1.59512

193376

-1.09%

-5.12%

2014.10.06

1.60807

1.60981

1.5953

150684

0.71%

-3.42%

2014.10.07

1.60944

1.6128

1.60251

204807

0.09%

-2.71%

2014.10.08

1.61666

1.61806

1.60316

218653

0.45%

-1.38%

2014.10.09

1.61156

1.62259

1.61032

233861

-0.32%

-2.35%

2014.11.10

1.5841

1.59171

1.58402

111642

-1.70%

-4.53%

2014.11.11

1.59163

1.59441

1.58344

110925

0.48%

-3.79%

2014.11.12

1.57771

1.59398

1.57753

160000

-0.87%

-5.31%

2014.11.13

1.57084

1.57806

1.56929

123222

-0.44%

-5.99%

2014.11.14

1.56677

1.57091

1.55919

142994

-0.26%

-6.17%

2014.11.17

1.56385

1.57351

1.5619

125229

-0.19%

-6.35%

2014.11.18

1.56331

1.56783

1.56293

124259

-0.03%

-5.83%

2014.11.19

1.56812

1.57195

1.55889

133917

0.31%

-4.98%

2014.11.20

1.56919

1.57367

1.56312

145717

0.07%

-3.89%

2014.11.21

1.56509

1.57129

1.5625

154375

-0.26%

-4.38%

2014.11.24

1.57074

1.57139

1.56277

125417

0.36%

-2.85%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.71%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-3.11%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.93%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.95%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.66%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.38%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.52%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-3.01%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.64%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.82%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.51%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.41%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-2.13%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-1.71%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-1.66%

(+16 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-1.45%

(+17 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-1.30%

(+18 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-1.22%

(+19 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-0.62%

(+20 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

-0.94%

Forex Currency Statistics

Here are the Statistics for EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY as concerns the month December, based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter.

Table: Forex Market Statistics

MONTH DECEMBER

AVERAGE CHANGE

TIMES(↑↓)

 AVERAGE VOLATILITY

EURUSD

1.95%

8↑ 5↓

0.817%

GBPUSD

0.37%

5↑ 8↓

0.783%

USDJPY

0.89%

7↑ 6↓

0.778%

As you can see in the above table, the Euro usually finishes the year very strongly, More Statistics Here

Forex Market’s Important Updates of the Past Few Weeks

The US consumer prices rose 1.7% in October, year-to-year unchanged in pace from the previous month September

The US Initial jobless claims fell recently to 291,000 above consensus of a decline to 284,000

Existing US home sales in October came at 5.26 mn, up from 5.18 mn previously

Recent US Fed paper released argued “the risk of high inflation in the next one to two years remains very low by historical standards”

The Japanese Gross Domestic Product contracted 0.40% in the 3d quarter of 2014 over the 2nd quarter of 2014

Recently the Bank of England warned that the UK inflation rate is likely to fall below 1% within 6 months and that it expects inflation to stay below the 2% target for the next three years

■ The German final Q3 GDP data confirmed that the local economy grew 0.1% qoq in Q3 a rebound from -0.1% qoq in Q2


George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, 25th of November 2014


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