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Forex Trading Signals for January-February 2015

Forex Market Outlook & Trading Signals for January-February 2015

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

The US Dollar against a basket of major currencies ended 2014 with record gains of more than 12%. Actually this was the best USD performance of the past 10 years. In this analysis we are going to investigate what happens next in the Foreign Exchange market as 2015 starts, regarding EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

The Previous TCI Signal

During November 2014 we have pointed that December is traditionally the best month to buy the Euro against the US Dollar. But, it seems that the long-term strength of the USD proved more important than any statistics and this forecast hasn’t proved right -Giving an end to an extended row of successful Forex signals during 2014.

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

Euro continues to be under high pressure due to political, economic and psychological factors. As the European Central Bank is expected to ease aggressively monetary policy in 2015, many hedge fund managers forecast EURUSD to 1:1 in the following 12 months. Mario Draghi, the ECB President recently said that ECB is making preparations to alter the extent of its measures in early 2015. From the other hand, the demand for US dollar remains strong due to high US growth rates but also due to expectations for higher interest rates, starting in the third quarter of 2015.

TCI on EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter. ?More About TCI

Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

? EURUSD TCI Indications

TCI reading for EURUSD is currently found at TCI = -6.75%. This shows an oversold market and most probably we should expect a normal correction before the US Dollar becomes very aggressive again. In any case don’t forget that this is the year of the US Dollar therefore be very careful and give extra weight to upcoming fundamental updates before trading against the USD.

EURUSD Major Technical Levels

EURUSD is trading at the lowest exchange rate levels since 2010. Here are some important support and resistance levels:

? Resistance Levels: 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2140

? Support Levels: 1.1860, 1.1750, 1.1700

Press the following Slider to reveal EURUSD TCI Indications:

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2014.12.03

1.23098

1.239

1.23005

120296

-0.58%

0.7%

-4.25%

2014.12.04

1.23784

1.24558

1.22795

154401

0.56%

1.4%

-2.85%

2014.12.05

1.2285

1.23923

1.22702

122923

-0.75%

1.0%

-4.10%

2014.12.08

1.23169

1.23435

1.22465

111799

0.26%

0.8%

-3.46%

2014.12.09

1.23728

1.24474

1.22916

144974

0.45%

1.3%

-2.32%

2014.12.10

1.24469

1.24473

1.23615

131433

0.60%

0.7%

-0.76%

2014.12.11

1.2411

1.24946

1.23694

150240

-0.29%

1.0%

-1.58%

2014.12.12

1.24598

1.24848

1.23838

130471

0.39%

0.8%

-0.86%

2014.12.15

1.24357

1.24783

1.24141

138060

-0.19%

0.5%

-1.61%

2014.12.16

1.25087

1.25694

1.24333

169959

0.59%

1.1%

-0.18%

2014.12.17

1.23418

1.25151

1.23197

163173

-1.33%

1.6%

-2.76%

2014.12.18

1.22854

1.23522

1.22652

145076

-0.46%

0.7%

-3.13%

2014.12.19

1.22285

1.23018

1.22196

119579

-0.46%

0.7%

-3.80%

2014.12.22

1.22303

1.2272

1.2216

74833

0.01%

0.5%

-3.50%

2014.12.23

1.21717

1.22451

1.2164

83755

-0.48%

0.7%

-4.45%

2014.12.24

1.21869

1.22195

1.2169

54811

0.12%

0.4%

-3.33%

2014.12.26

1.21773

1.22163

1.21679

34895

-0.08%

0.4%

-3.90%

2014.12.29

1.21548

1.22204

1.21424

73421

-0.18%

0.6%

-3.93%

2014.12.30

1.21548

1.21869

1.21233

80529

0.00%

0.5%

-4.09%

2014.12.31

1.21003

1.21692

1.20969

58675

-0.45%

0.6%

-4.49%

2015.01.02

1.20007

1.20692

1.2

76964

-0.82%

0.6%

-5.73%

2015.01.05

1.19319

1.19758

1.18729

125136

-0.57%

0.9%

-6.36%

2015.01.06

1.18896

1.19683

1.18836

129304

-0.35%

0.7%

-6.75%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-6.53%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-6.39%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-6.04%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-5.36%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-5.24%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-5.48%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-5.50%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-5.32%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.78%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.59%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.84%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.40%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.38%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.95%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.07%

? GBPUSD TCI Indications

As concerns the GBPUSD, the British Sterling is under pressure but we should probably expect a small correction before USD appreciates further. TCI forecast as a potential turnaround date in the 8th January 2015. Press the following Slider to reveal GBPUSD TCI Indications:

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2014.12.11

1.57284

1.57561

1.56513

169090

0.09%

0.7%

-1.57%

2014.12.12

1.57167

1.57458

1.5694

150841

-0.07%

0.3%

-1.03%

2014.12.15

1.56366

1.57462

1.56006

144851

-0.51%

0.9%

-2.16%

2014.12.16

1.57489

1.57851

1.561

170686

0.72%

1.1%

-0.66%

2014.12.17

1.55735

1.57519

1.554

176323

-1.11%

1.4%

-2.26%

2014.12.18

1.56681

1.56767

1.55482

157173

0.61%

0.8%

-1.28%

2014.12.19

1.56211

1.56814

1.56047

144923

-0.30%

0.5%

-1.05%

2014.12.22

1.55883

1.56643

1.55723

95209

-0.21%

0.6%

-1.73%

2014.12.23

1.55195

1.56073

1.54852

117347

-0.44%

0.8%

-2.91%

2014.12.24

1.55473

1.55565

1.55034

80789

0.18%

0.3%

-2.40%

2014.12.26

1.55566

1.55661

1.55363

66267

0.06%

0.2%

-2.46%

2014.12.29

1.55156

1.55851

1.55065

99359

-0.26%

0.5%

-2.07%

2014.12.30

1.55617

1.55729

1.55

111657

0.30%

0.5%

-1.50%

2014.12.31

1.55757

1.56193

1.55484

91777

0.09%

0.5%

-1.10%

2015.01.02

1.53257

1.55498

1.53255

103213

-1.61%

1.5%

-3.34%

2015.01.05

1.52497

1.53187

1.51968

149535

-0.50%

0.8%

-3.90%

2015.01.06

1.51497

1.52732

1.51405

152342

-0.66%

0.9%

-4.83%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.78%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-5.26%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.66%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.46%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.46%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.21%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.33%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.19%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.58%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-4.14%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.35%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-3.32%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.96%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.65%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-2.94%

? USDJPY TCI Indications

The USDJPY after the recent correction have the potential to move higher again. Press the following Slider to reveal USDJPY TCI Indications:

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2014.12.08

120.672

121.836

120.195

140054

-0.66%

1.4%

10.92%

2014.12.09

119.695

120.995

117.929

189591

-0.81%

2.6%

9.74%

2014.12.10

117.814

119.908

117.699

196372

-1.57%

1.9%

5.76%

2014.12.11

118.643

119.551

117.431

179807

0.70%

1.8%

6.83%

2014.12.12

118.787

119.196

118.043

177259

0.12%

1.0%

6.75%

2014.12.15

117.803

119.049

117.554

193788

-0.83%

1.3%

5.25%

2014.12.16

116.39

117.998

115.555

230616

-1.20%

2.1%

3.09%

2014.12.17

118.64

118.893

116.284

209581

1.93%

2.2%

6.26%

2014.12.18

118.83

119.305

118.25

167497

0.16%

0.9%

4.54%

2014.12.19

119.486

119.62

118.811

157489

0.55%

0.7%

4.41%

2014.12.22

120.024

120.079

119.305

101808

0.45%

0.6%

5.75%

2014.12.23

120.668

120.817

119.932

96072

0.54%

0.7%

6.22%

2014.12.24

120.442

120.754

120.271

75226

-0.19%

0.4%

4.71%

2014.12.26

120.326

120.454

120.169

49012

-0.10%

0.2%

5.11%

2014.12.29

120.655

120.727

120.162

99445

0.27%

0.5%

5.39%

2014.12.30

119.458

120.677

118.856

122372

-0.99%

1.5%

3.14%

2014.12.31

119.853

119.932

119.243

81618

0.33%

0.6%

3.64%

2015.01.02

120.453

120.735

119.8

88233

0.50%

0.8%

3.95%

2015.01.05

119.626

120.641

119.366

155370

-0.69%

1.1%

2.60%

2015.01.06

118.358

119.629

118.045

187733

-1.06%

1.3%

0.73%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.01%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.37%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.53%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.44%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.16%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.23%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.71%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

1.10%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.18%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

0.15%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.56%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.87%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.83%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.58%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

-1.19%

Forex Market Statistics

Here are some important statistics for January and February 2015, based on research by TradingCenter. Note that EURUSD during December 2014 showed a great divergence between statistics and actual returns and that fact make us skeptical for the next couple of months.

Table: EURUSD Statistics January-February

MONTH

AVERAGE EURUSD CHANGE

TIMES (??)

JANUARY

-0.76%

6? 8?

FEBRUARY

-0.29%

7? 7?

Table: GBPUSD Statistics January-February

PER MONTH

AVERAGE GBPUSD CHANGE

TIMES (??)

JANUARY

-0.03%

6? 7?

FEBRUARY

-1.00%

6? 8?

Table: USDJPY Statistics January-February

MONTH

AVERAGE USDJPY CHANGE

TIMES (??)

JANUARY

0.57%

9? 5?

FEBRUARY

0.82%

8? 6?

MARCH

0.84%

9? 5?

Important Forex Updates

These are some recent important updates from the Foreign Exchange Market   

-The US ISM non-manufacturing index fell more than expected in December 2014, even if the figure is below expectations it shows expansion for the 59th consecutive month

-In late January 2015, the Greek Parliament elections will take place. Note that the basic scenario suggests a second election round. That may enforce the uncertainty in Eurozone for a few weeks but the important clue is that 75% of all Greeks strongly support their participation in the Euro area

-The crude oil price continues to slump in January 2015. Currency pairs more correlated with oil prices include USD/RUB, USD/NOK, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY

-2015 is an election year for the UK, the UK elections will take place in May 2015

-The UK manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell to a 3-month low in December 2014

-The prospect for UK inflation levels below an annually 1.0% will further delay raising rates from BoE

- The real 2-year rate of the US Dollar is still more attractive than the Japanese and Eurozone rate.

In the above chart from IronFx you may see the spread difference between Forex majors.

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? Free Forex Trading Signals January 2015

George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst for TradingCenter (January 2015)

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