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Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD May-June 2015

Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD May-June 2015

Market: Foreign Exchange

Asset: EURUSD 

EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD is found on a correctional uptrend after reaching its 12-year low during March, 13th 2015 (1.0461). Today EURUSD is trading at about 1.1150 relative close to its periodic high of 1.1391. There are many explanations for this EURUSD uptrend. First of all the US economy during the first few months of 2015 is found on a mild contraction. Many analysts argue that the strong US Dollar is to blame for this economic contraction. If this point of view is correct then a further US Dollar appreciation could jeopardize the overall positive outlook of the US economy for 2015.

Forecasting EURUSD

Here is our forecast regarding EURUSD:

Short-Term: The short-term trend favors the EUR. Note that the main agreement between Eurogroup and Greece is expected to take-place in the 27th or the 29th of May 2015. As concerns technical analysis, the support level of 1.1065 might prove very crucial. If EURUSD proves capable of holding that level it will signal the aggressive continuation of the current uptrend.

Mid-Term: EURUSD mid-term course is a clear mystery. The recent 12-years low suggests that EURUSD depreciation has happened too fast and it seems that as concerns the next few weeks Euro could rebound further against the US Dollar. There is a scenario that EURUSD could move up to 1.2490. The resistance level of 1.1610 (if reached) might prove very crucial for EURUSD. Check the resistance levels below.

Long-Term: The long-term trend still favors the USD. Most probably in the next 6-8 months EURUSD will reach 1:1. According to technical analysis we are going to see even 0.86. A recent report from Morgan Stanley is in line with our forecast.

EURUSD Technical Analysis Levels

Supply Levels / Resistance:

1.1391 | 1.1610 | 1.2429 (final)

Demand Levels / Support:

1.1065-1.1049 | 1.0755 | 1.0665 | 1.0495-1.0460

EURUSD WEEKLY ON MT4 (CCI + MACD)

TCI on EURUSD

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis system developed by TradingCenter. Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD for May 2015.

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date

Close

High

Low

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2015.04.17

1.08051

1.08473

1.07331

168015

0.42%

1.1%

-2.04%

2015.04.20

1.07362

1.08193

1.07112

148044

-0.64%

1.0%

-3.46%

2015.04.21

1.07342

1.07806

1.06589

125996

-0.02%

1.1%

-3.67%

2015.04.22

1.07236

1.07997

1.07076

147889

-0.10%

0.9%

-3.86%

2015.04.23

1.08226

1.08444

1.06646

150824

0.92%

1.7%

-1.28%

2015.04.24

1.08723

1.0899

1.0784

153852

0.46%

1.1%

-0.03%

2015.04.27

1.08896

1.09256

1.08183

137314

0.16%

1.0%

1.40%

2015.04.28

1.09794

1.09898

1.0859

141877

0.82%

1.2%

3.90%

2015.04.29

1.11264

1.1187

1.09588

171989

1.34%

2.1%

6.00%

2015.04.30

1.12222

1.12651

1.10705

186628

0.86%

1.8%

7.92%

2015.05.01

1.11951

1.12893

1.11736

127884

-0.24%

1.0%

6.15%

2015.05.04

1.11456

1.12235

1.1122

132077

-0.44%

0.9%

4.79%

2015.05.05

1.11835

1.12223

1.10656

167087

0.34%

1.4%

4.27%

2015.05.06

1.1346

1.13693

1.11741

148436

1.45%

1.7%

7.58%

2015.05.07

1.12656

1.1391

1.12365

149018

-0.71%

1.4%

5.49%

2015.05.08

1.12091

1.12888

1.11783

148695

-0.50%

1.0%

4.23%

2015.05.11

1.11539

MID-SESSION

-0.49%

0.7%

3.90%

(+1 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.34%

(+2 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.22%

(+3 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.22%

(+4 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.11%

(+5 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.21%

(+6 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.20%

(+7 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

2.71%

(+8 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

2.54%

(+9 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

2.42%

(+10 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

2.54%

(+11 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

2.92%

(+12 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.35%

(+13 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.31%

(+14 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

3.12%

(+15 Trading Days)

 

 

 

 

 

2.81%

TCI reached +7.92% and +7.58% during the 30th of April and 6th of May 2015 respectively. This highlights an overbought market.

EURUSD Statistics

Here are EURUSD monthly statistics based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter. Statistically May is not a good month for EUR against the USD. On the contrary June is a good month for EUR against the USD.

MONTH

AVERAGE EURUSD CHANGE

TIMES (↑↓)

MAY

-0.52%

6↑ 8↓

JUNE

+0.62%

9↑ 5↓

JULY

+0.10%

6↑ 8↓

More EURUSD Statistics Here

EURUSD Key Updates

These are some important events and updates regarding EURUSD:

(1) Eurozone growth is forecasted at +0.5% based on a recent Reuters analyst’s poll.
(2) US suffered a mild economic contraction during the period January-March 2015 and for the first time in many years Eurozone is performing better than the US.
(3) Eurozone PMI readings were close to forecasts. German Final Manufacturing PMI at 52.1. French Final Manufacturing PMI at 48.0. Spanish Manufacturing PMI at 54.2. Italian Manufacturing PMI at 53.8.
(4) There has been a sell-off in the German Bonds during the past week.
(5) According to our sources, the main agreement between the Eurogroup and the Greek government should be expected in the 27th or the 29th of May 2015.
(6) On Friday (May, 9th) the US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed gains, but not enough gains to trigger an interest rate hike in June 2015. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the creation of 223,000 new jobs in April 2015.
(7) The US unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in line with expectations. The average US hourly earnings increased 0.1%.
(8) The US rates remain on course to be raised this year, most probably starting in September 2015.

 

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Forex Trading Signals, EURUSD

George M. Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

TradingCenter (May, 11th 2015) 

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