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Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD and USDX November 2015

EURUSD and USDX November 2015 

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD and US Dollar Index

TCI Forecast: EURUSD to form a new Short-Term Uptrend (?) bringing it from 1.095 to 1.1350, up to 1.1500

EURUSD Trading Signal Outlook

EURUSD has been under selling pressure for the past couple of weeks. This selling pressure is not fully justified by new fundamental data, and it seems to be rather a technical-driven selling pressure. If we take a look to the broader picture (Check EURUSD Chart), we are going to see that EURUSD is ranging between 1.080 and 1.149, for quite some time now. This time EURUSD is found at the lowest boundary of this range (periodic low 1.0896). In addition, TCI suggests also that EURUSD has reached oversold levels, and it is close to a turnaround (Check below TCI table).

CBOE futures (non-commercial positions) indicate that professional traders have increased their EURUSD long positions and have reduced their short EURUSD positions. Note that during October, CBOE futures showed professional traders to be short on EURUSD. Therefore, CBOE futures now show signs of EURUSD turnaround. Furthermore, statistically November and December are good months to be Long on EUR. In overall, if we assume that news will be neutral during November 2015, EURUSD is expected to enter a short-term uptrend that will bring it to 1.1350 and up to 1.1500.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

Here are some important EURUSD Support and Resistance Levels:

? ST Supply Levels: 1.1050-1.1070 | 1.1100 | 1.1140 | 1.1340 | 1.1385 | 1.1430-1.1500

? ST Demand Levels: 1.0890-1.0895 | 1.079-1.081

Lower EURUSD levels than 1.079 should be stopped (Stop-Loss entry). Wait until the new EURUSD uptrend is confirmed before you trade more aggressively.

Chart: EURUSD

EURUSD

Chart: USD-X

US Dollar Index

TCI on EURUSD

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter. Here are TCI Indications regarding EURUSD (Slider).

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change (%)

Volatility (%)

TCI

2015.10.22

1.13507

1.10998

1.11077

129819

-2.04%

2.3%

-2.50%

2015.10.23

1.11393

1.09962

1.10173

135714

-0.81%

1.3%

-4.26%

2015.10.26

1.10678

1.10034

1.10523

94583

0.32%

0.6%

-3.75%

2015.10.27

1.10783

1.10298

1.10455

100624

-0.06%

0.4%

-4.07%

2015.10.28

1.10953

1.08964

1.09264

125433

-1.08%

1.8%

-6.53%

2015.10.29

1.09862

1.09017

1.09857

121165

0.54%

0.8%

-4.88%

2015.10.30

1.10722

1.09651

1.10034

140474

0.16%

1.0%

-4.53%

2015.11.02

1.10522

1.09998

1.10153

99534

0.11%

0.5%

-4.45%

2015.11.03 (MIDDLE SESSION)

1.10297

1.09771

1.09881

(MIDDLE SESSION)

-0.25%

0.5%

-4.44%

(+1 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-4.93%

(+2 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-4.32%

(+3 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.80%

(+4 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.49%

(+5 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.33%

(+6 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.34%

(+7 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.66%

(+8 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.63%

(+9 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.32%

(+10 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.01%

(+11 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.18%

(+12 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-3.10%

(+13 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.07%

(+14 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.21%

(+15 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.18%

(+16 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.26%

(+17 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.23%

(+18 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.40%

(+19 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.48%

(+20 Trading Days)

     

 

 

-2.95%

Here are TCI Indications regarding the US Dollar Index (USDX)

Table: TCI on USDX

Date

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change (%)

Volatility (%)

TCI

2015.10.22

96.46000

94.96000

96.38000

11501

1.39%

1.6%

1.89%

2015.10.23

97.27000

96.20000

97.17000

11755

0.82%

1.1%

3.53%

2015.10.26

97.17000

96.75000

96.86000

8147

-0.32%

0.4%

3.12%

2015.10.27

97.03000

96.63000

96.98000

8644

0.12%

0.4%

3.45%

2015.10.28

97.86000

96.49000

97.70000

11088

0.74%

1.4%

5.17%

2015.10.29

97.76000

97.29000

97.32000

10212

-0.39%

0.5%

4.08%

2015.10.30

97.41000

96.62000

96.97000

12589

-0.36%

0.8%

3.22%

2015.11.02

97.01000

96.68000

96.95000

7799

-0.02%

0.3%

3.28%

2015.11.03 (MIDDLE SESSION)

97.17000

96.81000

97.12000

(MIDDLE SESSION)

0.18%

0.4%

3.41%

(+1 Trading Days)

         

3.81%

(+2 Trading Days)

         

3.31%

(+3 Trading Days)

         

3.02%

(+4 Trading Days)

         

2.74%

(+5 Trading Days)

         

2.46%

(+6 Trading Days)

         

2.43%

(+7 Trading Days)

         

2.77%

(+8 Trading Days)

         

2.70%

(+9 Trading Days)

         

2.45%

(+10 Trading Days)

         

2.25%

(+11 Trading Days)

         

2.36%

(+12 Trading Days)

         

2.31%

(+13 Trading Days)

         

1.58%

(+14 Trading Days)

         

1.68%

(+15 Trading Days)

         

1.70%

(+16 Trading Days)

         

1.74%

(+17 Trading Days)

         

1.69%

(+18 Trading Days)

         

1.82%

(+19 Trading Days)

         

1.94%

(+20 Trading Days)

         

2.39%

EURUSD Statistics

November and especially December are good months to be long on EURUSD. Actually December is the best month of year to be long on EURUSD. Here are the Monthly Statistics for EURUSD

MONTH

AVERAGE CHANGE

TIMES (?/?)

AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY

NOVEMBER

0.49%

7? 6?

0.909%

DECEMBER

1.95%

8? 5?

0.817%

 

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EURUSD Important News & Events

These are some recent important updates regarding EUR and USD:

Table: EURUSD News & Updates

DATE ECONOMY NEWS & EVENTS ACTUAL CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
October 15 USA  Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.00% -0.10% 0.20%
October 15 USA  Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 1.90% 1.80% 1.80%
October 15 USA  Initial Jobless Claims 255K 270K 263K
October 15 USA  FOMC Member Mester speech      
October 16 USA  Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 92.1 89 87.2
October 20 USA  Building Permits (MoM) 1.103M 1.164M 1.170M
October 20 USA  FOMC Member Powell Speech      
October 22 E.U  ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
October 22 E.U  ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference    
October 22 USA  Initial Jobless Claims 259K 265K 255K
October 22 USA  Existing Home Sales (MoM) 5.550M 5.380M 5.310M
October 23 ITALY  Markit Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.2 50.6
October 23 GERMANY  Markit Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.7 52.3
October 26 USA  New Home Sales (MoM) 0.468M 0.550M 0.552M
October 27 USA  Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation -0.40% -0.90% 0.00%
October 27 USA  Durable Goods Orders -1.20% -3.00% -2.00%
October 27 USA  Consumer Confidence 97.6 102.9 103
October 28 USA  Goods Trade Balance -$58.630B -$64.900B -$67.190B
October 28 USA  Fed's Monetary Policy Statement      
October 28 USA  Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
October 29 GERMANY  Unemployment Change -5K -5K 2K
October 29 GERMANY  Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.40% 6.40% 6.40%
October 29 USA  Initial Jobless Claims 260K 263K 259K
October 29 USA  Gross Domestic Product Annualized 1.50% 1.60% 3.90%
October 29 USA  Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) 1.20% 3.20% 2.20%
October 29 USA  Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) 1.30% 1.40% 1.90%
October 29 GERMANY  Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.30% 0.20% 0.00%
October 29 GERMANY  Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 0.20% 0.10% -0.20%
October 30 ITALY  Unemployment 11.80% 11.90% 11.90%
October 30 E.U  Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.00% 0.00% -0.10%
October 30 E.U  Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 1.00% 0.90% 0.90%
October 30 USA  FOMC Member Williams speech      
October 30 USA  Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 90 92.5 92.1
November 2 AUSTRIA  Unemployment 339.400K   322.200K
November 2 SPAIN  Markit Manufacturing PMI 51.3 52 51.7
November 2 ITALY  Markit Manufacturing PMI 54.1 52.9 52.7
November 2 FRANCE  Markit Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.7 50.7
November 2 GERMANY  Markit Manufacturing PMI 52.1 51.6 51.6
November 2 GREECE  Markit Manufacturing PMI 47.3   43.3
November 2 USA  ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50 50.2
November 3 SPAIN  Unemployment Change 82.300K 70.300K 26.100K
November 3 E.U.  ECB President Draghi's Speech      
Wednesday, Nov 04, 2015        
Nov 04, 10:00 E.U.  Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting      
Nov 04, 15:15 USA  ADP Employment Change   181K 200K
Nov 04, 15:30 USA  Trade Balance   -$43.200B -$48.330B
Nov 04, 17:00 USA  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI   57.1 56.9
Thursday, Nov 05, 2015        
Nov 05, 15:30 USA  Initial Jobless Claims   264K 260K

Trading Strategy and Set-up

EURUSD seems to have entered oversold levels on its mid-term range. We expect EURUSD to move higher, starting in the first week of November 2015. TCI suggests the opening of long EURUSD positions after the 4th of November 2015. Be careful with your entries, because EURUSD will face high volatility before forming the new uptrend. The best strategy is to open small long positions by keeping the stop-loss to 1.0789. After the new uptrend is confirmed you may start trading heavier and move your stop-loss higher. The first target is set at 1.1350 and the final take-profit at 1.1450-1.1490.

 

? Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD and USDX

Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

November, 3rd 2015 (middle session)

for TradingCenter


 

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