Forex Trading Signals February 2015

Forex Trading Signals: February 2015

"If you trade EUR against the USD in 2015 don’t expect something more than Bear Market Rallies"

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

Forex Market Outlook for 2015

Lately, the Euro managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar. During the 26th of January 2015, EURUSD moved below 1.11 (intraday low 1.10965) -Now it is trading above 1.13 supported by the manufacturing production in Eurozone which rose at the fastest pace of the past 6 months. This short reaction may lead EURUSD a little bit higher (maybe 1.15) but it seems that it is a pure technical reaction. Most probably 2015 will be the year of the US Dollar. FED is the only major monetary authority that has no problems seeing its currency moving higher against other majors. Furthermore, between the 5 majors (USD, EUR, CHF, JPY, and GBP) only the US Dollar can offer higher interest rates in 2015. Eurozone suffers from deflation and slow growth and loosening its monetary policy is the only way to go. The same is valid for Japan and as Haruhiko Kuroda of BoJ said recently the weakening of the Yen is not hurting Japan’s economy. In this volatile environment, EURUSD is expected to start a new downtrend in the following weeks. From the other hand, the UK economy is in a better position than the euro area and that is likely to reverberate in the EURGBP exchange rate during the following months. In overall for 2015, we should expect USD to be the best performer against the Euro, the British Sterling and the Japanese Yen and the European Currency to be the worst performer against the US Dollar, the British Sterling, and the Japanese Yen.

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Our Previous Trading Signal

In our previous trading signal, we have referred to EURUSD and GBPUSD and forecasted a short-term correction before the downtrend starts again. Actually only GBPUSD managed to achieve a descent reaction. As concerns GBPUSD, we have mentioned the 8th of January as the most probable turnaround date. GBPUSD indeed started a bullish correction during the 8th of January 2015 that brought 1.5270 a few days later. As we said before, bear market rallies are all we can expect if we trade against the USD in 2015.

Here is the Full Trading Signal

TCI Forecast on EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter.

Here are TCI Indications regarding EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD.

During the 23rd of January 2015, TCI on EURUSD indicated -11.43% which is one of the lowest TCI readings on EURUSD of the past 15 years.

TCI on EURUSD January 2000-January 2015

According to TCI, the EURUSD reaction was absolutely logical.

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2015.01.30

1.13627

1.12776

1.1283

328742

-0.30%

0.8%

-8.62%

2015.02.02

1.13539

1.12918

1.13262

128341

0.38%

0.5%

-8.23%

(+1 Trading Days)

         

-7.84%

(+2 Trading Days)

         

-7.42%

(+3 Trading Days)

         

-6.77%

(+4 Trading Days)

         

-6.35%

(+5 Trading Days)

         

-6.31%

(+6 Trading Days)

         

-5.83%

(+7 Trading Days)

         

-5.02%

(+8 Trading Days)

         

-5.22%

(+9 Trading Days)

         

-4.98%

(+10 Trading Days)

         

-4.53%

(+11 Trading Days)

         

-4.69%

(+12 Trading Days)

         

-4.13%

(+13 Trading Days)

         

-3.89%

(+14 Trading Days)

         

-2.93%

(+15 Trading Days)

         

-2.23%

Table: TCI on USDJPY

Date

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2015.01.28

118.255

117.247

117.521

280903

-0.28%

0.9%

-1.49%

2015.01.29

118.482

117.372

118.297

314099

0.66%

0.9%

0.75%

2015.01.30

118.445

117.292

117.507

311417

-0.67%

1.0%

-0.67%

2015.02.02

117.872

116.925

117.522

143871

0.01%

0.8%

-0.90%

(+1 Trading Days)

         

0.16%

(+2 Trading Days)

         

1.05%

(+3 Trading Days)

         

-0.63%

(+4 Trading Days)

         

-0.77%

(+5 Trading Days)

         

-0.55%

(+6 Trading Days)

         

-0.96%

(+7 Trading Days)

         

-0.89%

(+8 Trading Days)

         

-0.91%

(+9 Trading Days)

         

-0.33%

(+10 Trading Days)

         

-0.88%

(+11 Trading Days)

         

-0.59%

(+12 Trading Days)

         

-1.03%

(+13 Trading Days)

         

-1.12%

(+14 Trading Days)

         

-0.95%

(+15 Trading Days)

         

-0.15%

Table: TCI on GBPUSD

Date

High

Low

Close

Volume

Change

Volatility

TCI

2015.01.30

1.50955

1.49882

1.50594

214697

-0.04%

0.7%

-3.37%

2015.02.02

1.50977

1.50048

1.50495

117328

-0.07%

0.6%

-3.11%

(+1 Trading Days)

         

-2.70%

(+2 Trading Days)

         

-2.68%

(+3 Trading Days)

         

-1.87%

(+4 Trading Days)

         

-2.38%

(+5 Trading Days)

         

-2.31%

(+6 Trading Days)

         

-1.94%

(+7 Trading Days)

         

-1.70%

(+8 Trading Days)

         

-2.09%

(+9 Trading Days)

         

-2.17%

(+10 Trading Days)

         

-1.81%

(+11 Trading Days)

         

-1.79%

(+12 Trading Days)

         

-1.89%

(+13 Trading Days)

         

-0.98%

(+14 Trading Days)

         

-0.43%

(+15 Trading Days)

         

0.01%

Foreign Exchange Statistics

Here are the Statistics for EURUSD based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter.

MONTH

AVERAGE EURUSD CHANGE

TIMES (↑↓)

AVERAGE EURUSD DAILY VOLATILITY

JANUARY

-0.76%

6↑ 8↓

0.925%

FEBRUARY

-0.29%

7↑ 7↓

0.876%

MARCH

0.26%

7↑ 7↓

0.859%

More Statistics Here

Important Foreign Exchange Updates

These are some important news and events:

● Volatility in the Forex market is booming the past couple of months

● The US GDP expanded annually at 2.6% in the 4th quarter of 2014

● The US Consumer spending grew 4.3% in the 4th quarter of 2014 -the fastest rate of growth since the 1st quarter of 2006

● The University of Michigan's final January 2015 reading at 98.1, the highest reading since January 2004

● Chicago PMI rose to 59.4 in January 2015 from 58.8 in December 2014

● Benoit Coeure, ECB Executive Board member said the ECB would reassess its bond-buying program in 2016 and it will be ready to do more in order to lift inflation if it is needed

● Eurozone final manufacturing PMI in January 2015 amounted to 51.0

● The leftist ‘Siriza’ was the great winner in the recent Greek elections. They will attempt to re-negotiate the Greek Debt. Note that 75% of all Greeks support their participation in the Euro area while 62% of all Germans want Greece inside the Euro.

● 2015 is an election year for the United Kingdom, Portugal, and Spain. The leftists are gaining significant ground in Spain.

● Japan’s Final PMI for January 2015 amounted to 52.2, higher than the reading 52.0 in December 2014

● Haruhiko Kuroda of BoJ said recently that he didn’t think the weakening of the yen was hurting Japan’s economy. He said also that it is desirable for the Yen exchange rate to move stably in a way that reflects economic fundamentals

● Falling oil prices are pushing inflation lower in all over the world. Deflation in Eurozone creates several problems as it depresses consumer spending. Low inflation makes it harder for monetary policies to be implemented as the interest rates are already very low. Due to lower inflation, loose monetary policies are expected to continue around the globe.

 

UNITED STATES

EUROZONE

JAPAN

UNITED KINGDOM

CPI DEC 2014

+1.30%

-0.20%

+2.40%

+1.0%

  

Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, USDJPY. GBPUSD

George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

TradingCenter (2015)

 

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