Free Forex Trading Signal July 2016 (EURUSD, Gold)

• ■ Market: Forex, Metals
• ■ Assets: EURUSD, Gold
• ■ Forecast: Gold Uptrend Continuation (↑), EURUSD to Range

General Outlook

The global financial markets can still feel the vibrations of the Brexit earthquake. The panic of the first few days is gone but there is still high uncertainty regarding what happens next in Europe. The political turmoil is expected to last for quite some time as Poland and other Eurozone members have started to doubt the France/Germany leadership, and as Scotland will probably demand a new referendum regarding its independence. In the current environment, any forecast is particularly risky. Nevertheless, going long on gold seems a good idea whatever happens.

Our Previous Trading Signal

In our previous Trading Signal (late April 2016), we forecasted EURUSD to range without clear direction and commodity currencies to move lower in May 2016. We said “May 2016 is expected to be a corrective month for commodity currencies. If you want to go long on commodity currencies it seems wise to wait for a correction in May”. Actually, a correction in the price of commodity currencies did happen in May, and it was quite intense (6-9%). At this moment, we are optimistic regarding the performance of commodity currencies.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Everyone is seeking stability nowadays and EURUSD is a good tool for stabilizing financial markets, at least to some extent. EURUSD is expected to continue ranging during summer 2016.

■ Resistance (↑) 1.126-1.127 | 1.137 | 1.142 | 1.149-1.150 | 1.160-1.162

■ Support (↓) 1.0828 | 1.070-1.074 | 1.050-1.051 | 1.042

Chart: EURSUD Broader Range (D1, RSI, MACD)

Read more: Gold Trading Signal July 2016

The price of Gold is crushed but the bear market seems to come to an end.

The price of gold crashed on Monday the 15th of April to levels below 1,340 USD per ounce. This current bear market started on October the 4th 2012 when the gold price closed at its peak of 1,791.8 USD per ounce. Today and as the gold price reached 1,320 USD it seems this bear market moves too fast lately. Using TCI analysis we are going to investigate if it is time for a bear market rally.

But first let’s evaluate the results of our previous trading signal on Dow Jones Industrial (April 22, 2013)

The Previous TCI Trading Signal on Dow Jones Has Been Proved Accurate

Our previous signal on Dow Jones Industrial has forecasted a bull market that will last until the 5th of April 2013 / 9 April 2013. Actually, the bull market has lasted 3 more days than we expected. As concerns the target we have placed (in points), that was met with considerable precision. We have placed a target price for Dow Jones Industrial at 14,850 points while Dow Industrial had a high close at 14,865.14 and an intraday high at 14,887.51, both on the 11th of April 2013.

Gold from a Fundamental Point of View

There are two fundamental reasons behind the recent drop in gold. First, it is the weak economic data derived from the Chinese Economy. And note that China drives the global demand for gold during the past decade (jewelry and investment gold). The Chinese economic weakness caused future demand-drop-fears in other markets too, especially as concerns other metals and energy. But there is another important development regarding the recent drop in the price of gold. The intention of the Cypriot government to sell gold (worth $500 million) in order to improve its public debt ratios created the concern that more troubled economies will do the same in the future. As concerns, the South of Europe, Italy, Spain, and Portugal are holding great gold reserves.

Here are the Countries with the greatest Gold Reserves

Other precious metals like silver and platinum and many mining shares from around the world were hit also in the past couple of days.

Read more: TCI on Gold Signal April 2013

The Gold Price Outlook as 2013 Ends

The Long Bearish Gold Price Journey is about to Take a Break

Gold is expected to make a short-term bullish break (correction) before it continues its Long-term Bearish Trend.

• Current Gold Price: $1,202.73
• Short-Term Target: $1,233, $1,250, 1,270, $1,320
• Stop-Loss: $1,179-$1,185
• Long-Term Target: $1,088

But before investigating further the future course of the Gold Price, let’s evaluate the previous TCI signal on GBPUSD and GBPJPY.

The Previous TCI Signal of Trading Center

On the previous signal, TCI has indicated a correctional bearish trend of GBPJPY. By that time GBPJPY was traded at 167,591. After some trading days, GBPJPY reached 166,500 (December, 17th), at that levels the demand for British Pounds proved strong and turn GBPJPY bullish again.

Read more: Gold Price Outlook as 2013 Ends

Gold more than any other precious metal face wide price fluctuations from year to year. There are many factors affecting the price of gold (fundamental and psychological factors). The demand and supply of gold are changing due to variables such as government policies, currency volatility, and investment strategies. Gold has been a major performer over the last decade and the main reasons for that were: i) The global economic uncertainty (especially in US and Eurozone), and ii) The increase in demand from Asia (Jewellery and Investment Gold). Gold prices have increased from $300 per ounce in 2000 to $1,665 per ounce today (February 2013).

Chart: Gold Price 10-Years (February 2003-February 2013)

Read more: Gold Price 2013