TCI Forecasting Models

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TCI Forecasting Models

TCI Forecasting Models

This analysis begins with a review of our previous Bitcoin outlook, followed by a TCI assessment and a broader look at the current market cycle, and concludes with expectations for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market in the years ahead.

As anticipated in our Bitcoin analysis published at the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a classic bear market phase. In particular, our analysis of November 18, 2025, stated: "Bitcoin has most likely topped for this cycle. While not guaranteed, it remains the most probable scenario. If the top is indeed behind us, historical patterns suggest the bear market may last roughly 12 months. In that case, an ABC decline could bottom out between October and November 2026. The expected low remains in the $45,000-50,000 zone". Note, that Bitcoin was trading at $92,600 at that time.

🔗 Read the 11/2025 analysis: https://tradingcenter.org/index.php/trade/cryptocurrency/387-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-analysis-2026

History shows that Bitcoin's deep bear market lasts about a year, and given that it started in October 2025, statistically we're just a few months away from the bottom. That said, there's a feeling that everything will happen faster in the current market cycle, so I expect the bottom to form somewhat earlier - perhaps even sometime this summer.

TCI Forecasting Models

Introducing the TCI Indicator to the Web

Today, there are many technical analysis tools available—indicators, oscillators, indices, ratios, and chart patterns. The problem is that all of them are designed to look only backward, and not forward. 🔗 More: » Technical Analysis Guide

TradingCenter, drawing on extensive trading experience, has developed a new trading indicator called TCI. The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) can be used to analyze any traded financial asset in any timeframe—both historically and in forecasting future movements.

📌 TCI Concept: “Look backward to identify what to buy, then look forward to decide when to buy it”

The Improved Version of TCI at Trading Center

This Is How TCI Works

Since the original creation of the TCI model in the early 2000s, the formula behind it has been continuously evolving. This is because the global economy and market conditions are always changing. To stay effective, any trading system must adapt to these changes. For example, when market volatility increases, trading systems need to adjust by shortening timeframes, widening stop-loss levels, and using tighter capital leverage.

What Distinguishes the New Version of TCI

What sets the new version of TCI apart from earlier versions is the way timeframes are now defined and analyzed. The updated TCI uses timeframes based on the Fibonacci sequence. This approach improves the accuracy of TCI’s forecasting results.

Why the Fibonacci Sequence Matters

The Fibonacci sequence is based on the Golden Ratio (Phi or Φ), approximately 1.618 (1.61803398874989484820…). This ratio appears throughout the universe, in nature, and even in the proportions of the human body. Financial markets have long recognized the importance of Fibonacci mathematics, which is why tools like Fibonacci Retracement are widely used in technical analysis today. 🔗 More: » Trading with Fibonacci Primes

TCI Long & TCI Short

The new TCI signals are generated by two separate indicators: TCI Long and TCI Short. This is because both short-term and mid-term trends are important when identifying whether an asset or market is overbought or oversold. TCI Short also helps fine-tune entry and exit timing. As mentioned earlier, TCI can be used to look forward and define the best times to enter or exit any market or asset.

Here’s an example using TCI Long and TCI Short on the EUR/USD pair in the Forex market. If you look closely, you’ll see that when TCI Long hits +40%, the market tends to fall. That suggests hidden supply appears at that level, quickly closing out what are likely high-profit positions.

  1. TCI+ Forex Trading System

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