Nomura Global Economic Outlook 2012-2013

 

According to Nomura, the world economic growth is about to slow a little bit in the rest of 2012 -This is mainly due to the fact that the European economy enters a recession period. The world’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2012 while it grew 3.7% in 2011. The growth in emerging markets (BRIC) is expected still very strong (5.9%) while the growth in developing economies is expected relatively weak, at about 1.3%.

These are the major global economic outlooks for 2012-2013.

 

United States

Nomura prediction for US GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 2.2%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 2.3%

Nomura prediction for US unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected 8,1%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 7.9%

Risks for US Economy

■ Oil prices may influence the course of inflation

■ Uncertainty concerning US elections and the negative impact on US fiscal policy

 

Euro Area

The euro area is likely to enter a recession period as an outcome of austerity and tight credit conditions. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain the rate of euro at 1.0%. Although the euro area enters in recession, ECB is not planning to take any major measures against it. As concerns, the crisis of the South, -Portugal is expected to receive a second bailout in the form of PSI (Private Sector Involvement). As Nomura states, the debt crisis creates a dark cloud over the euro outlook but they see that the downside risks are limited than they previously assumed.

Nomura prediction for European GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to fall by 0.6%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 1.3%

Nomura prediction for European Unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected at 11.0%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 11.5%

 

United Kingdom

UK's economic recovery will be threatened by the Eurozone crisis. Growth is expected to resume in the 3rd quarter of 2012. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is taking decisive measures to increase real demand and improve growth -despite high inflation.

Nomura prediction for UK GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 0.8%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 1.6%

Nomura prediction for UK Unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected at 8.3%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 8.0%

 

China

Growth in China continues to decelerate but at a slower pace. Real estate investments have fallen and housing prices are expected weak.

Nomura prediction for Chinese GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 8.2%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 8.2%

India

India's economic high growth is likely to recover in the second half of 2012 due to the expected strong global demand and also India’s low-interest rates. However, India’s economy is highly influenced by oil price fluctuations.

Nomura prediction for India’s GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 7.1%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 7.9%

Japan

Reconstruction inJapanis expected to push growth in the first half of 2012. According to Nomura, the biggest risks are power shortages, yen appreciation and a possible deterioration in the European debt crisis.

Nomura prediction for Japanese GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 2.1%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 1.5%

Nomura prediction for Japanese Unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected at 4.3%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 3.9%

 

Brazil

The Brazilian economy is experiencing a slowdown. The Central bank ofBrazilsurprised the economy accelerating the diminishing Selic policy rate to 75 base points in March 2012. As a consequence, the Selic may fall about 10% during the next months."

Nomura prediction for Brazilian GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 3.5%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 4.3%

 

Australia

Australia's continuing to grow.

Nomura prediction for Australian GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 2.6%
■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 2.8%

 

TradingCenter (2012)