🌍 Nomura Global Economic Outlook 2012-2013

According to Nomura, global economic growth is expected to slow slightly during the remainder of 2012—primarily due to the European economy entering a recession. The world’s GDP is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2012, compared to 3.7% in 2011. Growth in emerging markets (BRIC) is still expected to remain strong at 5.9%, while growth in developed economies is projected to be relatively weak, at around 1.3%.

These are the major global economic outlooks for 2012–2013.

---

 

💵The United States

Nomura prediction for US GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 2.2%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 2.3%

Nomura prediction for US unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected 8,1%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 7.9%

Risks for US Economy

■ Oil prices may influence the course of inflation

■ Uncertainty concerning US elections and the negative impact on US fiscal policy

 

💶 Euro Area

The euro area is likely to enter a recession due to the effects of austerity measures and tight credit conditions. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain the euro interest rate at 1.0%. Although the region is slipping into recession, the ECB is not planning to implement any major countermeasures.

Regarding the ongoing crisis in Southern Europe, Portugal is expected to receive a second bailout, potentially through Private Sector Involvement (PSI). According to Nomura, the debt crisis continues to cast a shadow over the euro’s outlook, but they now view the downside risks as more limited than previously anticipated.

Nomura prediction for European GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to fall by 0.6%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 1.3%

Nomura prediction for European Unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected at 11.0%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 11.5%

 

💷 United Kingdom

The UK’s economic recovery is expected to be threatened by the Eurozone crisis. However, growth is projected to resume in the third quarter of 2012. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is taking decisive measures to boost real demand and support growth, despite the challenges posed by high inflation.

Nomura prediction for UK GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 0.8%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 1.6%

Nomura prediction for UK Unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected at 8.3%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 8.0%

 

🧧 China

Growth in China continues to decelerate, though at a slower pace. Real estate investment has declined, and housing prices are expected to remain weak.

Nomura prediction for Chinese GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 8.2%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 8.2%

🕌 India

India’s high economic growth is expected to recover in the second half of 2012, driven by strong projected global demand and the country's low interest rates. However, India’s economy remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.

Nomura prediction for India’s GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 7.1%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 7.9%

💴 Japan

Reconstruction in Japan is expected to drive growth in the first half of 2012. According to Nomura, the main risks include power shortages, yen appreciation, and a potential worsening of the European debt crisis.

Nomura prediction for Japanese GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 2.1%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 1.5%

Nomura prediction for Japanese Unemployment

■ Unemployment in 2012 is expected at 4.3%

■ Unemployment in 2013 is expected at 3.9%

 

🌴 Brazil

The Brazilian economy is currently experiencing a slowdown. In response, the Central Bank of Brazil surprised markets by accelerating the reduction of the Selic policy rate by 75 basis points in March 2012. As a result, the Selic rate may decline by around 10% in the coming months.

Nomura prediction for Brazilian GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 3.5%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 4.3%

 

🦘 Australia

Australia's continuing to grow.

Nomura prediction for Australian GDP

■ GDP in 2012 is expected to grow by 2.6%

■ GDP in 2013 is expected to grow by 2.8%

 

---

 

TradingCenter (2012)