The Bitcoin Basics

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Cryptocurrency Trading

This analysis begins with a review of our previous Bitcoin outlook, followed by a TCI assessment and a broader look at the current market cycle, and concludes with expectations for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market in the years ahead.As 2025 comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal turning point. After two years of strong fundamental growth and impressive returns, early signs now point toward a potential bear market. Historically, Bitcoin’s bear markets tend to follow an ABC correction pattern, and the current price action suggests it is forming the initial A-wave. This implies a final push (B-Wave) toward $100,000, before entering the final and more painful leg of the bear market (C-wave). Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $92,600.

Beginning with a review of our previous Bitcoin outlook, continuing with a TCI assessment and a broader look at the current market cycle, and concluding with a forecast for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market in the years ahead.

The Previous TradingCenter.org Cryptocurrency Forecast from November 2023

In late 2023, TradingCenter published an analysis examining the likelihood of a cryptocurrency bull cycle during 2024-2025. The report outlined a bullish scenario for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, concluding:

“The bull market will probably occur in three waves (stages). The first wave will most likely complete near the Bitcoin halving (2024), where the altcoin market will face a significant correction of about 40-50%.”

It also noted, “According to market statistics, the top will likely occur in October 2025.”

This outlook proved quite accurate. The market indeed unfolded in three bullish stages, the first of which ended around the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, followed by a sharp altcoin correction (30-40%). Most notably, the market peak occurred in October 2025, exactly as projected two years earlier.

The full 2023 analysis can be found here: 🔗 https://tradingcenter.org/index.php/trade/cryptocurrency/367-crypto-bull-market-2024-2025

Cryptocurrency Trading

Open interest shows whether money is flowing in or out of the derivatives market, and it is a reliable early indicator of Bitcoin’s mid-term trend...Understanding Open Interest in Futures and Options Markets

Open interest shows whether money is flowing in or out of the derivatives market, and it is a reliable early indicator of Bitcoin’s mid-term trend.

Explaining Open Interest

Open interest refers to the total number of derivative contracts (futures or options) that remain open at the end of the trading day. The number of outstanding futures or options contracts is not fixed and changes daily as some traders open new positions while others close theirs. In short, open interest shows the total number of futures or options that have not yet been settled.

□ Open interest measures the number of open contracts, not the sum of both buys and sells together

□ Open interest changes only when a new position is opened or an existing position is closed

What does open interest show? 

□ Shows general market sentiment across different asset classes (equities, crypto, etc.)

□ Indicates money flowing in or out of the futures and options market

□ Shows the level of market liquidity

Cryptocurrency Trading

After a long and painful bear market, the cryptocurrency market is showing some clear signs of a trend reversal. This is happening just a few months before the Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years. Historically, Bitcoin halving signals the beginning of a new bull market period that lasts 12-18 months.Investigating the Possibilities of a Cryptocurrency Bull Market in 2024-2025

After a long and painful bear market, the cryptocurrency market is showing some clear signs of a trend reversal. This is happening just a few months before the Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years. Historically, Bitcoin halving signals the beginning of a new bull market period that lasts 12-18 months. Of course, the performance of past market cycles cannot guarantee future performance. There are some risks (presented later) that can disturb, or even cancel, the bull market. In any case, we will investigate the potential of an upcoming bull market for cryptocurrencies.

Before we move on with the crypto analysis, this is an evaluation of TradingCenter’s latest trading signal.

TradingCenter Previous Trading Signal September-November 2024

In the latest TradingCenter signal (September 19th, 2023), it was noted that the US dollar was strong at the time, but a solid rebound for EURUSD was expected in the second half of November. The US dollar remained strong until late October, and a major EURUSD rally began on November 2nd. The pair rose from 1.055 (November 1st) to 1.093 today. A good call overall, even though EURUSD rebounded a bit earlier than expected.

🔗 Find out more: » The previous TradingCenter signal can be found here

Cryptocurrency Trading

■ Market: Cryptocurrencies

■ Assets: Bitcoin

The massive increase in money supply in Western economies has created unprecedented demand for hard assets. Bitcoin may be the hardest asset in the world, as its supply is strictly limited to 21 million units. This helps explain the Bitcoin surge we’ve seen over the past year.

Now, caution is needed, as the Bitcoin bullish trend is showing signs of exhaustion. While the macro environment remains favorable for digital currencies, we may see a significant short-term correction, especially among altcoins.

Bitcoin Bullish Trend Showing Signs of Exhaustion

After an extraordinary year that took Bitcoin from $7,000 in April 2020 to $66,000 in April 2021, BTC is now showing clear signs of trend exhaustion. Meanwhile, BTC adoption and network security are at all-time highs. So, what has changed? Here are some reasons explaining Bitcoin’s trend exhaustion:

  1. Profit-taking, as Bitcoin has gained over 1,400% since March 2020.

  2. In early 2021, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed the iconic $1 trillion mark for the first time.

  3. Bitcoin has had six consecutive profitable (green) months, a first in its history.

  4. Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market showed signs of weakness, with investors moving to Ethereum, which offered higher upside potential.

  5. Many bubbles have formed in the altcoin market, which is not a positive sign for the overall industry.

  6. Recently, India and Turkey legislated against Bitcoin use in their countries.

  7. The new US capital tax proposal was released just a few hours ago.

Cryptocurrency Trading

Understanding a cryptocurrency’s utility and its current level of adoption is an essential step when investing in the right projects. The following web tools are useful for researching cryptocurrency networks.

RESEARCHING LAYER-1 CHAINS

Layer-1 crypto projects are independent blockchain networks that can process, validate, and finalize transactions without relying on another network.

Examples of such networks include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, Binance, Cardano, Polkadot, Cosmos, and others. These blockchains are crucial for the crypto industry, as they provide the infrastructure for building applications and creating advanced ecosystems.

Researching Layer-1 Projects

The following tools can help investors evaluate the utility and adoption of various Layer-1 projects:

Cryptocurrency Trading

Ethereum 2.0 Upgrade is Reshaping and Decentralizing the Global Financial System

Currently, Ethereum is leading the decentralized finance (DeFi) revolution, holding over 95% of the market share. However, the network’s existing structural limitations created the need for a major upgrade in 2021.

This upgrade, called Ethereum 2.0, aims to make the network more secure, cheaper to use, and capable of handling thousands of transactions per second.

 

Introducing Ethereum and Ethereum 2.0

Launched in 2015, Ethereum is an open-source software platform incorporating decentralized applications (dapps) and smart contracts. Ethereum is the most actively used blockchain in the world and the second most valuable in terms of market value (after Bitcoin). These are some key Ethereum numbers:

  • Hundreds of thousands of users and tens of thousands of developers (about 3,000 dapps are built on Ethereum)

  • Leading the revolutionary Decentralized Finance (Defi) with a market share of over 95%

  • Over 25 billion USD is currently locked in Ethereum’s DeFi -Check here the Total Value Locked in DeFi

The native cryptocurrency of the platform is Ether (ETH). Ether works as the transactional token for the operation of smart contracts and dApps.

  1. BitMex Perpetual Contracts and Crypto Funding Rate
  2. Compare Cryptocurrency Exchanges

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