As 2025 comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal turning point. After two years of strong fundamental growth and impressive returns, early signs now point toward a potential bear market. Historically, Bitcoin’s bear markets tend to follow an ABC correction pattern, and the current price action suggests it is forming the initial A-wave. This implies a final push (B-Wave) toward $100,000, before entering the final and more painful leg of the bear market (C-wave). Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $92,600.

Beginning with a review of our previous Bitcoin outlook, continuing with a TCI assessment and a broader look at the current market cycle, and concluding with a forecast for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market in the years ahead.

The Previous TradingCenter.org Cryptocurrency Forecast from November 2023

In late 2023, TradingCenter published an analysis examining the likelihood of a cryptocurrency bull cycle during 2024-2025. The report outlined a bullish scenario for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, concluding:

“The bull market will probably occur in three waves (stages). The first wave will most likely complete near the Bitcoin halving (2024), where the altcoin market will face a significant correction of about 40-50%.”

It also noted, “According to market statistics, the top will likely occur in October 2025.”

This outlook proved quite accurate. The market indeed unfolded in three bullish stages, the first of which ended around the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, followed by a sharp altcoin correction (30-40%). Most notably, the market peak occurred in October 2025, exactly as projected two years earlier.

The full 2023 analysis can be found here: 🔗 https://tradingcenter.org/index.php/trade/cryptocurrency/367-crypto-bull-market-2024-2025

 

 

The Unusual Cryptocurrency Market Cycle of 2022-2026

The current Bitcoin bull cycle began in December 2022, when the price of BTC was trading near $16,500. From that point to the $126,000 peak in October 2025, the overall return was significant. Still, this cycle differed sharply from previous ones. In earlier cycles (2014-2022), traders' capital tended to spread across a wide array of smaller blockchains. However, this time, crypto investors concentrated almost entirely on large-cap assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Binance Coin, XRP, and Stellar, along with a few newer entrants like SUI and SEI. In short, the broad rotation into small, peripheral projects never materialized.

The introduction of crypto ETFs and the flows of institutional capital from Wall Street changed the rules of this cycle's bull market. This 'new' money coming from Microstrategy and other key Wall Street players was exclusively focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum. As a result, a strong institutional trend was created throughout this cycle, driving capital away from smaller blockchains. Notable exceptions were XRP, BNB, and Solana, which were able to make a new high in this cycle.

 

TCI Analysis on Bitcoin Price (2013-2025)

TCI is a multi-featured technical indicator developed by TradingCenter.org and Giorgos Protonotarios. It combines two algorithms: one that calculates daily price changes and another that accumulates price momentum. The aim is to provide an alternative view to traditional technical analysis. TCI can be applied to any timeframe, for example, a 34-period setting for short-term movement or a 233-period setting to assess long-term momentum.

In this Bitcoin analysis, TCI is set to 233 periods, providing a historical view of where BTC market cycles typically begin and end.

Chart: 233-day TCI on Bitcoin, SMA(233), and the Historical Buy Zone for BTC

As shown in the chart, three major market cycles appear between 2013 and 2025. Each market cycle delivers diminishing returns, yet the structure of the market bottoms remains consistent.

• The Bitcoin buy zone is clearly highlighted and sits below the current TCI readings.

 

What’s Next for Bitcoin: Anticipating an ABC Bear Market in 2025-2026

Historically, Bitcoin bear markets follow an ABC formation. If we assume this market cycle has already concluded, Bitcoin is now in wave A of the correction. Once wave A completes, a bullish corrective wave B will likely follow, potentially pushing the price back toward the $100,000 region. After that, the final wave C could bring Bitcoin down to the $45,000-50,000 range.

• Note that Bitcoin often forms a double-bottom pattern near major cycle lows.

Chart: Examining Bitcoin Cycles 2021-2026 & RSI Precision

 

The chart highlights the previous BTC market cycle’s highs and lows, along with the current BTC market cycle's highs and projected lows. Based on this view:

• The current Bitcoin market cycle’s lows are expected sometime after mid-2026
• Those lows may pull Bitcoin price toward the $45,000-50,000 area
• The weekly RSI Precision (shown at the bottom of the chart) has been trending downward since December 2024, signaling an upcoming bear phase
• A similar downward trend for RSI Precision occurred during the 2022-2023 bear market; once the trend broke, the bear market ended
• Likewise, once the current weekly RSI Precision downtrend breaks to the upside, the bear market should be considered complete

 

 

Final Verdict -Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market in 2026

Bitcoin has most likely topped for this cycle. While not guaranteed, it remains the most probable scenario. If the top is indeed behind us, historical patterns suggest the bear market may last roughly 12 months. In that case, an ABC decline could bottom out between October and November 2026. The expected low remains in the $45,000-50,000 zone.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Despite the expected bear market, Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains bullish. Its capped supply of 21 million coins is a meaningful advantage during periods of inflation and currency debasement. A potential disruption in the U.S. government bond market could also drive more capital toward alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin and gold. The recent surge in gold reflects growing concern in that area. Under the Trump administration, Bitcoin is likely to experience another strong bull run that may stretch into early 2028. Considering all factors, a move into the $45,000-50,000 range could present a good investment opportunity ahead of the next bull phase, projected for 2026-2027.

 

■ Bitcoin TCI Analysis and Cryptocurrency Market Forecast for 2026 (*)

Giorgos Protonotarios, Investment Analyst

for TradingCenter.org (c), November 18th, 2025

(*) The analysis above does not constitute investment advice.