■ Market: Foreign Exchange | EURUSD

■ Forecast: Technically, the EURUSD shows substantial upward potential for 2026-2027, but political instability in the Eurozone could cancel any positive outlook (currently 1.1565).

After forming a higher low near 1.02 in January 2025, EURUSD climbed steadily throughout the year with strong momentum. The local peak at 1.19 in September was followed by a reasonable correction toward the strong 1.1410 support level. In this analysis, we will examine what may come next for EURUSD by exploring the macroeconomic environment and using exclusive technical analysis.

 

Macroeconomic and Political Drivers of the EUR/USD Exchange Rate

Beginning with the Eurozone and proceeding to the United States.

 

Eurozone

Currently, the Eurozone faces major economic and political challenges. GDP growth in 2025 is weak (1.1% to 1.2%), the government deficit-to-GDP ratio remains relatively high (euro area, 3.1% in 2024), and the government debt-to-GDP ratio is heading higher (euro area, 87.1% in 2024).

On top of that, European leaders lack coordination, and the absence of a unified EU strategy on foreign affairs is more evident than ever. The significantly higher energy costs compared with the US and China are putting serious pressure on European manufacturing, while Europe is clearly left behind in the AI race. At the same time, Europe must reserve funds for rearmament. However, Europeans are far from willing to accept cuts to social benefits to finance a military buildup.

• In September, the euro area annual inflation rate was 2.2%

• In September, the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3%

• The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate is at 2.00% (October 2025), the refinancing operations rate is 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate is 2.40%

 

The United States

Despite uncertainty and the economic effects of imposed tariffs, the US economy is expected to grow 1.8% in 2025. The government deficit-to-GDP ratio was high in 2024 (6.4%) and is expected to improve slightly by the end of 2025 (6.1%). The government debt-to-GDP ratio is far worse than in the EU and is projected to reach 125% in 2025.

Politically, the United States is in a far stronger position than Europe during the Trump administration and is also leading the AI race.

• In September, the annual inflation rate was 3.0%

• In August, the unemployment rate was 4.3%

• The FED’s target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (October 29, 2025 meeting)

• The market anticipates one rate cut (0.25%) in 2025 and likely two more (0.25%) in 2026 (targeting 3.00–3.25% in late 2026)

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EURUSD Technical Analysis Using the Exclusive PriceMomentum Chart

This analysis begins with a PriceMomentum EURUSD chart. Introduced by TradingCenter.org a few years ago, this chart type focuses on percentage changes and incorporates a secondary algorithm that accounts for periodic volatility and momentum. (🔗 More about the PriceMomentum). The chart also includes the 255-day SMA, which roughly represents the pair’s yearly trading days.

Chart: EURSUD Daily PriceMomentum since 2000 & SMA(255)

 

You can see the formation of a 20-year price channel in the chart. For the first time, in mid-2022, EURUSD crossed below the lower boundary of the channel. However, the pair managed to re-enter the channel and reconfirm the lower boundary in late 2024. If the pair reaches the upper boundary of the channel in the next few years, we could see a movement of up to +20% (level 1.35-1.38). However, political instability in Europe can alter any technical analysis forecast.

 

TCI Analysis

In the short term, TCI (🔗 More about TradingCenter Indicator), shows the formation of a local low a few days ago. The following table presents TCI calculations and projections for the next 15 trading days, indicating a positive momentum for EURUSD.

Table: TCI calculations on EURUSD

Date	High	Low	Close	Change (%)	Σ(ΔMP)	Price Momentum	TCI-34	TCI-55	TCI-89	TCI-144
27.10.2025	1.16547	1.16176	1.16508	0.17%	-29.15%	-3.06%	-0.72%	-0.63%	0.17%	3.33%
28.10.2025	1.16686	1.16255	1.16568	0.05%	-29.06%	-2.92%	-0.38%	0.14%	0.62%	3.22%
29.10.2025	1.1666	1.15773	1.16028	-0.46%	-29.23%	-3.55%	-0.92%	-0.52%	-0.02%	2.71%
30.10.2025	1.16374	1.1547	1.15714	-0.27%	-29.41%	-4.00%	-1.49%	-1.20%	-0.56%	2.20%
31.10.2025	1.15775	1.15214	1.1537	-0.30%	-29.51%	-4.40%	-2.23%	-1.97%	-1.22%	1.79%
02.11.2025	1.15383	1.1525	1.15274	-0.08%	-29.55%	-4.52%	-2.36%	-2.12%	-1.67%	1.35%
03.11.2025	1.15413	1.1505	1.15184	-0.08%	-29.59%	-4.64%	-1.97%	-1.93%	-1.80%	1.07%
04.11.2025	1.15334	1.14729	1.1485	-0.29%	-29.75%	-5.09%	-2.04%	-2.25%	-2.38%	0.23%
05.11.2025	1.14978	1.14687	1.14957	0.09%	-29.64%	-4.89%	-1.86%	-1.68%	-1.87%	0.44%
06.11.2025	1.15522	1.1493	1.15485	0.46%	-29.42%	-4.21%	-0.86%	-0.95%	-1.14%	1.39%
07.11.2025	1.1591	1.15294	1.15656	0.15%	-29.37%	-4.01%	-0.79%	-0.84%	-1.03%	1.16%
09.11.2025	1.15582	1.15413	1.15433	-0.19%	-29.42%	-4.26%	-1.19%	-1.40%	-0.68%	1.21%
10.11.2025	1.15829	1.15409	1.15565	0.11%	-29.47%	-4.19%	-1.11%	-1.32%	-0.43%	1.37%
(+1 Trading Day)							-0.99%	-1.53%	0.09%	1.96%
(+2 Trading Days)							-1.18%	-1.31%	0.27%	2.59%
(+3 Trading Days)							-0.94%	-1.15%	-0.48%	1.39%
(+4 Trading Days)							-0.74%	-1.23%	-0.56%	1.46%
(+5 Trading Days)							-0.53%	-1.11%	-0.51%	1.46%
(+6 Trading Days)							-0.51%	-1.07%	-0.54%	0.94%
(+7 Trading Days)							-0.18%	-1.04%	-0.96%	0.99%
(+8 Trading Days)							-0.36%	-1.69%	-1.48%	0.47%
(+9 Trading Days)							-0.48%	-1.49%	-1.16%	0.54%
(+10 Trading Days)							-0.37%	-1.26%	-1.06%	0.87%
(+11 Trading Days)							-0.45%	-1.09%	-0.80%	1.06%
(+12 Trading Days)							-0.51%	-1.10%	-1.11%	0.72%
(+13 Trading Days)							-0.70%	-1.54%	-1.53%	0.33%
(+14 Trading Days)							-0.38%	-1.45%	-1.20%	0.12%
(+15 Trading Days)							-0.35%	-1.09%	-1.22%	-0.37%

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

These are some support and resistance levels for EURUSD (currently 1.1565).

■ Strong Supply Levels (Resistance):

(↑) 1.2200-1.2240 (strong)

(↑) 1.1900-1.1920

(↑) 1.1780-1.1820

■ Strong Demand Levels (Support):

(↓) 1.1410 (strong)

(↓) 1.1180-1.1200

(↓) 1.1070-1.1090

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EURUSD PAIR SEASONAL STATISTICS

Historically, January tends to be bearish for EURUSD, while November -and especially December- are generally bullish months for the pair. Here are the EURUSD statistics based on 18 years of research (TradingCenter).

MONTH	TIMES		RETURN
	↑	↓
NOVEMBER	9	9	+0.12%
DECEMBER	11	7	+1.40%
JANUARY	9	10	-0.66%

🔗 More Forex Market Statistics

 

Final Verdict -Could EURUSD Reach 1.34-1.38 in 2027?

From time to time, TradingCenter has highlighted a few promising long-term investment opportunities. We discussed a Bitcoin bull run back in November 2023, a potential Gold bull run in early 2024, and maintained a positive outlook on equities for 2025. In this context, we currently note that the EURUSD market may present a long-term bullish opportunity for 2026–2027.

The FED is expected to lower interest rates over the next 14 months, while the ECB will probably not follow. It is also no secret that the Trump administration would likely welcome a weaker US Dollar to support exports. In addition, the technical outlook for EURUSD is bullish, targeting even 1.34-1.38 in the coming years.

However, it is important to recognize that political instability in Europe, coupled with numerous economic challenges, can easily cancel any positive outlook for EURUSD. 

 

■ Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD November 2025

Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst,

for TradingCenter (c) -Nothing posted constitutes investment advice

November 11th, 2025

 

🔗 Sources:

• https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
• https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators
• https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
• http://usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates
• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
• https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html