TCI Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD March-April 2015

“Never Trade against a Major Central Bank”

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Asset: EURUSD

□ Forecast: EURUSD downtrend continuation (↓) after a short-term uptrend correction

EURUSD Outlook

If there is one constant rule in Forex trading, it is: “Never trade against the will of a major central bank.” Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, SNB, and BoJ hold many hidden tools and are ready to manage their currencies based on long-term monetary strategies. Right now, the Fed is the only major central bank comfortable with its currency strengthening. The ECB and BoJ are focusing on flexible monetary policies to try to boost their economies. Meanwhile, the US economy is growing, unemployment is falling, and interest rates are expected to rise in the second half of 2015. In this environment, the US Dollar is likely to strengthen further against the Euro and Japanese Yen in the coming months. EURUSD may even trade around 1:1 soon.

However, since the Euro is near a 12-year low against the USD and the USD has gained about 10% against the Euro in just one month, it’s worth considering a possible short-term Euro correction. According to TCI, EURUSD is oversold, with the indicator again near -11%, similar to our previous EURUSD signal in February 2015. At the time of this analysis, EURUSD trades at 1.0560. With neutral news, EURUSD could rise to 1.0650 or even 1.0750.

Evaluating Our Previous Trading Signal

Read more: EURUSD March-April 2015

Forex Market Outlook & Trading Signals for January-February 2015

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

The US Dollar ended 2014 with record gains of over 12% against a basket of major currencies. This was the best USD performance in the past 10 years. In this analysis, we will explore what to expect next in the Forex market for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD as 2015 begins.

The Previous TCI Signal

In November 2014, we noted that December is traditionally the best month to buy the Euro against the US Dollar. However, the long-term strength of the USD outweighed this trend, and the forecast did not hold—ending a long streak of successful Forex signals in 2014.

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

The Euro remains under heavy pressure due to political, economic, and psychological factors. With the European Central Bank expected to ease monetary policy aggressively in 2015, many hedge fund managers predict EURUSD could reach 1:1 within the next 12 months. ECB President Mario Draghi recently said the bank is preparing to adjust its measures in early 2015. On the other hand, demand for the US dollar stays strong because of high US growth rates and expectations for higher interest rates starting in the third quarter of 2015.

TCI on EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique technical analysis tool developed by TradingCenter.

Here are the TCI readings for EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY.

◙ EURUSD TCI Indications

The current TCI reading for EURUSD is -6.75%. This indicates an oversold market, so a normal correction is likely before the US Dollar becomes strong again. Remember, this is the year of the US Dollar, so be cautious and pay close attention to upcoming fundamental updates before trading against the USD.

Read more: Forex Trading Signals January-February 2015

Forex Trading Signals: February 2015

"If you trade EUR against the USD in 2015 don’t expect something more than Bear Market Rallies"

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

Forex Market Outlook for 2015

🔗 Link: » Here is the Full Trading Signal

Read more: Forex Trading Signals February 2015

Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

Historically, December is the best month to buy the Euro against the USD.

□ Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

□ TCI Forecast: Given neutral news, the Euro is expected to turn bullish against the US Dollar (↑), starting a new uptrend in the first few days of December 2014.

□ Potential Reversal Dates: November 26, 2014, or December 3, 2014 (based on TCI readings).

In most of our 2014 Forex reports, we have emphasized the strength of the US Dollar against other majors. The USD is in a strong uptrend against EUR and JPY due to the growing US economy and the expected rise in US interest rates starting in 2015. Meanwhile, many other major currencies suffer from slow growth or recession, as with Japan. Considering these fundamentals, the long-term USD uptrend will likely continue in the coming months. Although the USD uptrend is strong, corrections are inevitable after large gains. Our analysis shows that December 2014 will probably be a month when the US Dollar loses some ground (corrects) against other majors, especially the Euro.

Evaluating the Previous Trading Signal from TradingCenter.org

Our previous trading signal was one of the best we’ve ever published on TradingCenter.org. Not only did we forecast the USD’s rise against all majors in November 2014, but we also predicted the exact timing of the new uptrend starting in the last days of October.

We said exactly: “USD correction is coming to an end; we expect the formation of a new USD uptrend (↑). The new uptrend is expected to start in the last few days of October 2014 and peak by late November 2014.”

At that time, USDJPY was trading at 106.875; now it is around 118.00. That’s a huge gain in pips in just one month.

Forex Market Current Outlook

The Japanese Yen has faced heavy selling pressure since October 31, 2014, after the Bank of Japan announced more stimulus and following a disappointing GDP report. The British Pound Sterling is also under pressure due to weak inflation data from the Bank of England. In the Eurozone, the Euro continues to struggle with slow growth and low inflation, and drops every time ECB President Mario Draghi speaks. If you hold a long Euro position, you don’t want to hear Mario Draghi speak these days.

Read more: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, November 2014